“این عکس یک مرد در حال خنده را نشان می‌دهد”

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Conversation with Siamak Malamhamedi

Dr. Naser Karami is an associate professor at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology (NTNU). His research areas include sustainable development and climate change, physical geography, weather and climate change, regional planning, natural resource management, and environmental management. He is a climatologist and one of the most well-known researchers, authors, and journalists in the field of environmental studies. In recent years, through his efforts in publishing news and articles and establishing an independent news agency focused on the environment, he has been able to draw attention to the issues in this field, especially in light of the critical state of Iran’s environment. His book “The Path to Iran,” which is one of the best-selling books on describing the geography of Iran, is among his notable works.

Considering the occurrence of floods with high levels of destruction and widespread geographical extent in Iran, the monthly magazine “Peace Line” has interviewed Dr. Karami to discuss the causes and roots of these floods, as well as the crisis management methods that have been implemented.

What role have the damages inflicted on forests, pastures, and vegetation in the past few decades played in the recent floods and flash floods?

It definitely has an impact, in a way that the destruction of vegetation cover causes a decrease in the ability to control rainfall and floods, and the floods become more intense. We must pay attention to what we mean by flood destruction. The occurrence of a flood is one issue, and destruction caused by the flood is another issue. Destruction is a human issue. It means that what humans have built is destroyed; otherwise, we do not have anything called destruction in nature. Even the largest floods, if they continue on a completely natural path and landscape, whatever happens is a completely natural process. Destruction is related to humans, and it is a fact that humans can increase the intensity of floods and their destructive effects by manipulating the landscape. Of course, this has its own specific indicators. In rainfall events that occur less than every 10 years, the effect of vegetation cover is maximum. This means that vegetation cover plays a significant role in controlling the intensity of floods. However, the longer the return period of

Are roads and other facilities in Iran designed according to engineering and technical standards for flood-prone areas? Which cities and regions are safer in this regard?

Introducing the component of floods or climatic events – commonly referred to as natural disasters in Iranian media – is not considered a serious issue in construction in Iran. Even the minimum consideration of climatic components in the location of new cities is not seen. For example, there was not much enthusiasm for the new city of migrants as it was located in the path of dominant winds that brought the unpleasant smell of petrochemicals to the city. In fact, this unpleasant smell was so strong that it made living in the city difficult. This means that they did not even consider the direction of the wind entering the city. Of course, the most important problem is the lack of attention to riverbeds, which is strongly evident in the construction of residential areas and roads. The next problem is the use of unsuitable materials, especially in rural areas. This means that materials suitable for the climatic conditions of Iran, with differences in night and day temperatures and seasonal temperature differences, are not used. Houses

Another question that is raised is whether the laws and regulations related to construction, including residential, industrial, and agricultural, have been properly followed in flood-prone areas?

No, it was definitely not observed. The most important issue was the lack of respect for the river’s boundaries. In other words, the major areas that were destroyed, especially in Lorestan and now in Khuzestan, are areas where the river’s boundaries were not respected.

In preparation for such conditions, the management of dams and other effective structures in flood management is carried out systematically?

We need to take a look at the problem that existed last year. We had a severe drought last year; meaning only half of the annual normal rainfall, which continued the droughts of previous years. On the other hand, the fact that we will have such devastating floods in the future was not even predicted for the medium term. Although evidence shows that officials of the Karkeh Dam were informed a month before the floods and had started measures such as gradual release of water accordingly. But in most other places, there was no clear information about the future situation. They wanted to save water for the summer after years of drought, but this rainfall caused the dams to lose their role in controlling the floods; because the main rainfall happened when the dams were full and the excess water was forced to be released downstream.

Regarding such weather events, what responsibility does one have? Do you think valid and sufficient warnings were provided with proper coverage in the past days? Overall, did the flood warning systems function properly?

Meteorology is important, of course it must be separated from climatology. Meteorology deals with short-term predictions and climatology deals with long-term predictions. I think the climatology department of the meteorological organization has not done a good job in its duty. There are documents and of course it has been published that this department had denied the possibility of heavy rainfall two months ago. But meteorology has done a good job in short-term predictions; so that a week before the flood, they gave the necessary warnings. The main issue is long-term prediction – meaning people know from now on what events may happen in a few months or a year – which is weak in Iran overall.

To what extent have the incurred damages been preventable and to what extent have they been inevitable due to the volume and destructive force of the flood, and should it be considered as a part of human weakness against nature?

Every house that was built on the riverbed and is now destroyed is a result of human weakness. I believe the major damage that has been caused should be considered as the result of human impact. We must distinguish between two things; one is the role of humans in the occurrence of floods and the other is their role in the extent of destruction. In my opinion, the role of humans in the occurrence of floods is very small. Because as they say, these heavy rains occur every 200 years; rains that inevitably cause floods. But the fact that the floods had such a destructive impact is due to incorrect land use in Iran, construction, and road building in the river basin. The major destruction that occurred was the result of haphazard construction in the country.

What impact does public awareness about floods and similar destructive events have on reducing the damages caused?

Information and public awareness play a very important role in facing climate events. On one hand, people should know that the land they live on has its own specific climate conditions and they should adapt their living and livelihood accordingly. This awareness plays a role in choosing the type of agriculture, roads, and houses they build, and even in being prepared for events. Floods are just one of these events; we also have earthquakes and droughts that frequently occur in our country. People should also be prepared to face these events. The preparedness that I am referring to is mostly related to construction and similar issues. Unfortunately, this knowledge is weak in Iran. Even if there are regulations and codes, they are not enforced. For example, we have regulations that prohibit building houses on riverbeds, but they are not enforced. In Lorestan, for instance, all the houses built on riverbeds had legal documents, water and electricity connections, and street access. It is natural for people to trust the

On the other hand, the issue is about warnings that are given to people before or during an event. Firstly, it is not clear why people did not trust these warnings. Secondly, the communication from official organizations was not good enough. The space was filled with fake news and I could see that people were really confused and distressed. They didn’t know what to do and who to trust.

How should public media, especially radio and television, deal with these issues?

In such cases, considering the nature of totalitarians and agosantrals of sound and television, the biggest weakness and mistake of this media is revealed. We have witnessed general statements being issued from Tehran addressing the flood-affected areas, which were not usable for the local people due to their generality and the vast geographical area they covered. We needed media on a local scale with local information. For example, to announce: “Oh people of that village, you should do this, or those of you on that road, do this now.” I have not seen such significant information dissemination from official institutions in this manner and on this scale. Instead, Telegram channels that were operating on a local scale became seriously influential and took over the space. This situation showed the great gap and weakness in sound and television information dissemination.

Thank you for the opportunity you have provided us with to reach a peace agreement.