Makran is a region in southeastern Iran that extends from the Strait of Hormuz to the east and begins at Minab, continuing to the Sindh River in Balochistan, Pakistan. This region is of special importance due to its geopolitical location and is recognized as an international waterway. Makran holds strategic value for both Iran and Pakistan, and in the past, it was known as the main part of Balochistan. Additionally, it is the only part of Iran that has direct access to open waters. During times of international sanctions on Iran, the port of Chabahar has even benefited from exemptions due to its strategic location. In this regard, the government has entered into contracts with China and India, although the exact terms and level of economic influence of these countries in the region remain unclear, they have provided a basis for foreign investment in Makran.

This collection of factors, along with the power balance that has formed in the region, has highlighted the strategic position of this area more than ever before. In scenarios where the possibility of war or blockade of sea routes is raised, the Makran Sea can play a vital role in facilitating the import and export of oil, gas, and other goods. This is particularly important because it can significantly reduce Iran’s dependence on the Strait of Hormuz.

Population Structure and Government Changes.

In recent decades, changes in the country’s divisions have led to parts of Balochistan being annexed to the provinces of Kerman, Hormozgan, and South Khorasan. However, if we disregard the drawn borders on the map, the population structure of this region – namely Makran – has remained intact. The majority of the population in this region are Sunni Balochs – whether they reside in eastern Hormozgan, southern Kerman, or Sistan and Baluchestan.

In recent years, the Iranian government has put the project known as the “Makran Coast Development Plan” on its agenda, which is directly under the supervision of the leader of the Islamic Republic. This plan is ostensibly introduced with the aim of developing the region’s economy, but in practice, it is considered part of a larger strategy to change the demographic makeup of the area. The government is seeking to create a “Shia Alawi civilization” – in their own words – in this region. According to the plans, between 6 to 11 million members of the government’s loyal forces will be relocated to this area. Keep in mind that this relocation will not include the general public and the target is the loyal forces.

This plan includes the construction of residential towns for housing new recruits, establishing military bases (both air and naval), and essentially developing security infrastructure along the coasts of Makran. This policy is in line with the same strategy of changing the demographic and expanding Shia influence that the Iranian government has pursued in the region for decades. Prominent examples of this policy can be seen in Lebanon, Iraq, and Syria; even Azerbaijan has not been immune to this strategy at various times. Alongside these actions, other changes are also taking place, indicating a calculated geopolitical rearrangement in this region. The policy of settling government and military forces, along with restricting native access to economic resources and new infrastructure, demonstrates a goal beyond mere development; it is a long-term goal of population engineering and social control over one of Iran’s most important strategic gateways.

Ambiguity in the transfer of the capital and its consequences.

Despite all this, it does not seem that the Iranian government has the necessary capability to transfer the capital, as such an action requires significant expenses and extensive infrastructure development, which seems out of reach in the current economic conditions of Iran. In addition, the transfer of the capital can have serious security consequences for the regime. The idea of turning Makran into the future capital of Iran can serve as a more functional and economic advertisement for the government. The publication of such news attracts investors and speculators to the region, as many of them will buy land and invest with the belief that the value of land and properties will increase in the future, creating a unique opportunity for the government.

On the other hand, such changes can have profound effects on the social fabric and livelihoods of the indigenous people of Makran. The population of this region is mainly from low-income classes who have been living traditionally on their ancestral lands – including nomadic tribes and rural communities. The expansion of urban development projects, construction of military bases, and development of industrial infrastructure will gradually lead to the displacement of this population from the region. In fact, conditions will be such that the indigenous people will be forced to leave their lands without the need for forced relocation, so to speak. Rising living costs, limited access to natural resources, land grabbing under the guise of development, and concentration of facilities in newly established cities are all factors that will drive the people of the region to migrate. In such a scenario, they not only lose the right to decide about their lands, but ultimately end up being pushed to the margins of these new cities and become marginalized.

The people and civil activists’ perspective on the development plan of Makran.

Given our understanding of the region, opposition to the development plan of Makran beaches is not limited to political and civil activists, but also the indigenous people of Sistan and Baluchistan do not have a positive view of this project and the possibility of relocating the capital. According to the people of the region, the government is trying to take this region away from the indigenous inhabitants, who are the main owners of this land, and use it for its own political, economic, and security goals.

Concerns become more serious when examining previous development policies that show such projects have not benefited the indigenous people in practice. A prominent example of this injustice is the province of Sistan and Baluchestan, which despite hosting some of the country’s largest gold mines – including in Tafatan and Nasrat Abad – has never benefitted from the wealth generated by these resources. This reality is just one of countless examples of disregarding the rights of indigenous people in government development policies.

Internal colonization.

The development plan of Makran coasts can be considered a form of internal colonization; projects that the government has proposed not for the welfare of the indigenous people, but for the realization of its own political, security, and economic goals. Not only does this plan have no benefits for the residents of the region, but its consequences will fundamentally change the culture, religion, language, identity, and even the existence of the indigenous population. The influx of millions of immigrants from other parts of the country will transform the social structure of Baluchistan and turn the original inhabitants into a minority in their own land. Currently, the population of Sistan and Baluchistan province is estimated to be around three and a half million, including those without birth certificates. However, if this plan is implemented, the population will increase to about nine million; meaning that the indigenous population will be in an absolute minority. This is while even in the current conditions, the Baluch people are deprived of their basic citizenship rights.

As a result, this plan is against the Baloch people in every aspect. Currently, due to the special conditions of the region, there are many sensitivities surrounding this issue and it has caused a lot of concerns among the people and activists in the region.