The great burden on the shoulders of childhood is susceptible.

Information and data system is the foundation of decision-making, policy-making, and proper implementation of policies in any country. When there is no accurate information system, it is not possible to have a clear picture of realities or to identify and plan for the main challenges and problems. Naturally, within this framework, receiving feedback on policies and measuring and evaluating their effects will also be close to impossible.

Perhaps it was for this reason that the Deputy of Social Welfare in the Ministry of Cooperatives, Labor, and Social Welfare had been working on establishing a comprehensive database based on the available data and information in the past years, in order to address part of the problem of information deficiency, especially in the field of welfare of households in the country. However, the work did not end with this information, and with great effort and long-term negotiations and convincing of various stakeholders (which will not be discussed here and has been described in numerous articles by those in charge of this work), more than fifty data sources were connected to each other and their information was shared.

Based on what has been mentioned in the introduction of the Iranian Welfare Base, the information from this base has been used for various projects including identifying children who have dropped out of school, improving the distribution system of goods, resolving insurance overlaps, launching a comprehensive health insurance system, designing, modifying and digitizing the process of providing social insurance coverage for construction workers, designing and modifying the process of social insurance coverage for carpet weavers and artisans in the handicraft industry, designing and modifying the process of social insurance coverage for drivers, identifying the needy population, providing support packages and increasing their monthly allowance, and creating a map of poverty and its distribution. According to the information from 1398, the use of this information has resulted in a total financial savings of three trillion and twenty-six billion tomans.

The result of using this database is not only financial savings in policies, but researchers have also been able to document their research in related fields with more accurate statistics by referring to examples that have been made available from this database while respecting privacy. Multiple reports have been published in the areas of poverty and social welfare, providing information even at the level of cities and counties in the country. The aggregation of data in this database has revealed important and overlooked realities for both researchers and policymakers.

Another important function of this base is eligibility assessment using a broad test. Social support systems generally use three criteria to cover individuals. In some systems, all members of society, whether capable of paying for a particular good or service or not, are covered by the support system. This includes free healthcare systems. Another group of supports cover “all individuals in specific groups.” For example, all elderly or all children are covered by a support system. In the third group, individuals’ needs and inability to meet those needs based on income and personal capital are assessed, and then individuals are covered by support. For example, if a person is unable to work or their income and personal capital do not cover the minimum cost of living, public assistance is provided for them.

In support of this third group, there is sufficient data and information to show its special importance, as it can cause policy makers to make mistakes from two perspectives: first, individuals who are covered by support but do not need it, and second, individuals who are excluded from this support but are in need of it. The importance of the data system in this group of policies is such that sometimes it is suggested for countries without a strong information system to use both first and second support systems and pay more for support, but not to exclude those in need from their support cycle.

Based on this, the Iranian Welfare Foundation has identified one of its most important functions as providing this information base and the ability to conduct extensive testing, and in the past, information from this database has been used to implement certain policies; but why this time, in presenting the new welfare package to households, relying on the data from this database was not successful and led to protests from many people. It seems that the answer to this question should be addressed from three dimensions:

Worsening Poverty: In the past decade, the economic trend has rapidly pushed society towards greater poverty. Even households with billion-dollar properties now struggle to access a stable income, and sometimes even have more than one employed family member who falls into the category of the poor. Paying attention to some statistics in this regard is crucial. According to information from the Welfare Deputy, the real per capita consumption (at the price of 1395) has decreased from 800,000 tomans in 1390 to 680,000 tomans in 1398. Additionally, according to official reports, in 1398, close to 33% of the population was below the poverty line, meaning that out of every three Iranians, one person is living in poverty. It is not far-fetched to assume that this number has increased in subsequent years. These data show that society is rapidly moving towards greater poverty, making it difficult and sensitive to select a specific target population for support.

Reducing the Gap between Deciles: Studies conducted in 1395 (2016-2017) in the field of poverty showed that income deciles cannot accurately reflect the income disparities among households. For example, individuals in the tenth decile, who are the wealthiest in society, may not have a significant difference in terms of expenses and income compared to those in the middle deciles. However, the gap between the final deciles (the top 2-4% wealthiest individuals in society) and the average of society increases exponentially. In such a structure, using deciles as a criterion for excluding individuals from the circle of social support will have a higher margin of error.

Shock Intensity: The cases mentioned have been obstacles in the way of conducting accurate and comprehensive examinations in the country, but despite this, the Iranian Welfare Information Base has been able to identify the target community with less challenge in the past years and propose or implement more precise mandatory and prohibitive policies. However, this time, the shock intensity inflicted on the economy through the policy of removing the four thousand and two hundred toman exchange rate was such that it affected all households in both psychological and real terms. The increase of over one hundred percent in dairy products, oils, and in some cases, even medicines, also caused a consumption shock for even the wealthiest households. To understand this reality, we must pay attention to the fact that the share of food in the household budget in Iran is an average of twenty-six percent, which shows that any shock to food prices is effectively a quarter of the household budget. This is while, for example, in Germany, food has a lower share of less than fifteen

It is obvious that when a policy is implemented in such dimensions, any mistake in the statistical and informational system will have larger consequences and outcomes. In the midst of this, the existing database, which has been created at great cost and effort, is like a child who suddenly becomes responsible without the usual trial and error. It was hoped that policymakers would realize this reality and use the urgency they had for implementing policies to complete and correct the existing databases. In this way, perhaps today we would have been faced with a less disastrous situation.