The discussion of transferring the capital of Iran from Tehran to the coasts of Makran in Balochistan, goes beyond a mere administrative and infrastructural decision, and will have profound cultural, social, and demographic consequences for Balochistan. This decision, made without the genuine participation of the indigenous people, will not only fail to lead to sustainable development, but will also pave the way for changing the demographic composition, intensifying centralizing policies, weakening the indigenous identity, and increasing the deprivation of the Baloch people.

One of the first consequences of transferring the capital was a significant increase in non-native migration to Balochistan. In recent years, the implementation of projects under the title of “Makran Development” has shown that the government is attempting to change the demographic composition of this region through targeted housing policies. Many Baloch activists refer to this process as “occupation of Makran” because it appears that the main goal of these projects is not real development, but rather reducing the share of Baloch people and decreasing the Baloch population in their ancestral land. In such circumstances, transferring the capital will only accelerate this process. With the influx of migrants from other regions, the Baloch people will face a wave of demographic changes that will lead to marginalization and a decrease in their economic and social opportunities.

In the past, similar policies were implemented in the oil-rich southern regions. For example, during the Pahlavi era, the government transferred non-native employees from Tehran to the Ahvaz Oil Company and built special residential complexes for them, while the native people of the region were limited to low-paying and difficult jobs. Experience has shown that in such development plans, key jobs and economic opportunities are mainly given to immigrants, while the indigenous people are left behind in the development process. The occupation of indigenous lands, under the guise of civil and military projects, will diminish their ownership of their own land and threaten their livelihoods. Real development must come from within local communities and be centered around them, because the right solution for the development of Balochistan is for the Baloch people and by the Baloch themselves. If such development takes place, a new population will naturally be attracted to the region, but with the difference that the Baloch people will have control over the economy and will not be

From the past until today, one of the tools of population change has been the occupation of indigenous people’s lands, under the name of national projects. Previously, the construction of military bases and economic projects on the coasts of Makran has led to the destruction of homes and confiscation of Baloch people’s lands. With the transfer of the capital, this trend will intensify and more lands of Baloch natives in this region will be seized. These forced displacements not only threaten the livelihood of the people, but also force them to migrate to peripheral areas with limited facilities, ultimately leading to increased poverty, unemployment, and social inequality.

The widespread influx of non-native people has always been one of the main factors weakening the culture and language of indigenous communities. Similar experiences in other regions of Iran have shown that with the increase of immigrant groups, the native language and culture are influenced and the use of the mother tongue becomes more limited, with Persian gradually replacing the language of the region in all areas. Additionally, local cultural and social institutions will come under stricter surveillance and many traditional Baloch ceremonies and rituals will either be banned or forced to undergo changes. In such circumstances, the process of cultural assimilation, which has been implemented in other regions of Iran, will intensify in Balochistan and will challenge the identity of the Baloch people.

Balochistan has always been one of the regions with the highest level of surveillance and security control in Iran. With the transfer of the capital, this situation will intensify. The government, under the pretext of maintaining security in the new capital, will increase military presence in the region, and the Baloch people will face even more restrictions on their movement, economic activities, and daily life. Past experiences have shown that an increase in military and security forces in a region usually leads to social tensions and dissatisfaction among the people. In Balochistan, this intensification of the security atmosphere can lead to further suppression of cultural and social activists, and limit the public space for any criticism or dissent towards government policies. Additionally, many Baloch people face even more discrimination in terms of employment, investment, and access to public services. The widespread presence of military and security forces often creates an atmosphere of fear and terror among the indigenous people, preventing them from participating in decision-making processes and development.

One of the main problems of such projects is the disregard for the rights and demands of the indigenous people. So far, there has been no serious consultation with the people of Balochistan about the future of the region and development projects. In such circumstances, decisions made by the government not only do not improve the situation of the Baloch people, but also create more problems for them. The transfer of the capital to Makran, without the genuine participation of the indigenous people, can increase dissatisfaction and intensify feelings of alienation and discrimination among the Baloch. This could lead to an increase in the gap between the government and the people of the region and result in further social and security crises.