The idea of relocating the capital in Iran, especially from Tehran to the Makran region, has recently been raised due to environmental challenges, population density, and Tehran’s vulnerability to natural disasters. This plan aims to achieve goals such as balanced regional development, strengthening geopolitical position, and reducing centralization. However, implementing such a plan can have multifaceted consequences, including positive and negative effects on economic, social, and environmental dimensions (Table 1 summarizes these dimensions briefly). In this note, some of these dimensions will be examined concisely and in simple language.

Motivations for the government to potentially transfer the capital to Makran.

The main reasons for the government’s decision to transfer the capital to Makran can be categorized as follows:

1. Reducing Vulnerability in Tehran: Due to its high population concentration and vital infrastructure, Tehran is at risk of disasters such as earthquakes and pollution. Relocating the capital can reduce the country’s vulnerability to such crises.

2. Fair distribution of resources: This action can help redistribute resources and investments in underdeveloped areas and ultimately lead to balanced development of the country.

3. Strengthening the Geopolitical Role of Makran: The proximity of Makran to international waters and trade routes, as well as its unique geopolitical capacities, places this region in a position to enhance economic and trade interactions for Iran.

Capital Transfer Feasibility Study.

The transfer of the capital to Makran requires a thorough examination of various dimensions. Some of the most important considerations are:

1. Necessary Infrastructures: Currently, Makran lacks sufficient infrastructures to play the role of a capital. Creating the necessary infrastructures requires extensive investment and a long time.

2. Financial and Economic Costs: The enormous costs of building a new capital city may put pressure on the country’s public budget and limit the resources needed for other development projects.

3. Social and Political Acceptance: The success of this plan requires political consensus and public acceptance. Any disagreement between government institutions or opposition from the people can delay its implementation.

4. Environmental and Water Resource Challenges: Limited water resources in Makran are one of the most important challenges for transforming this region into a capital city. Proper planning for water resource management will be essential.

Positive and negative consequences of transferring the capital.

The transfer of the capital, like any other project, has both positive and negative consequences, as well as facilities and obstacles.

Positive consequences.

1. Reduction of centralization and risks in Tehran: Reduction of population density, heavy traffic and air pollution are among the most important achievements of transferring the capital. This action can lead to improvement in the quality of life in Tehran and reduce its vulnerability to environmental crises and natural disasters.

2. Balanced development of regions: Choosing Makran as the new capital provides a great opportunity for the development of underdeveloped regions in the southeast of Iran. This can lead to employment growth, improvement of infrastructure, and enhancement of the social welfare in this region.

3. Strengthening Geopolitical and Economic Position: Makran, with its strategic location on the shores of the Oman Sea, has the potential to become a hub for trade and economy in the region. The transfer of the capital can increase economic and trade interactions between Iran and neighboring countries.

Negative consequences.

1. Enormous Financial Costs: Creating new infrastructures for the capital, including administrative buildings, housing, roads, and public services, requires a large budget that may put additional pressure on the country’s economy.

2. Increase in Regional Inequalities: Concentration of resources in Makran can lead to a decrease in investment in other regions of the country and exacerbate regional disparities.

3. Environmental challenges: Urban development in Makran is facing serious challenges such as water scarcity and climate change. This can lead to even more environmental problems in the long run.

4. Widespread migration and social problems: The concentration of economic opportunities in the new capital may lead to a wave of internal migration to this region, which can create problems in housing, employment, and public services.

Economic discrimination resulting from the transfer of the capital.

Economic discrimination in Iran in recent decades has been caused by intense centralization in Tehran and neglect of balanced development in other regions. This centralization has led to the formation of a type of economic polarization that has had multiple consequences. One of these consequences is the concentration of infrastructure in Tehran. A significant portion of national infrastructure, including universities, specialized hospitals, advanced educational centers, and transportation facilities, is concentrated in Tehran. National railways and major highways also mainly originate from Tehran, limiting access to these facilities for other regions. The concentration of government and private investments in Tehran, driven by relative capital security and the presence of a large consumer market, has resulted in the majority of large industrial and commercial projects being established in this city and its outskirts. A prominent example of this discrimination is the high share of Tehran in construction budgets and bank loans. In contrast, coastal and border cities, due to lack of sufficient investment in infrastructure and job opportunities, face problems such as widespread migration and high unemployment rates. For

However, the transfer of the capital to the coasts of Makran, if implemented improperly and without the adoption of compensatory policies and a balanced development approach, can lead to the formation of a new type of centralization and discrimination. This situation may result in new forms of discrimination in other regions of the country. One of the most important challenges is budget discrimination. Increasing the share of Makran’s budget for the development of infrastructure in the new capital can come at the cost of reducing financial resources for other provinces. This issue may lead to a decrease in the development trend in underdeveloped provinces such as Sistan and Baluchestan, Khuzestan, and Kurdistan. On the other hand, infrastructure concentration in Makran is also a serious threat. New infrastructures, including railways, highways, and urban facilities, will mainly be built around the new capital. This concentration can weaken the infrastructure of other regions of the country and intensify the wave of internal migration to Makran,

Foreign investment is also facing the risk of concentration in the new economic hub. Foreign investors may primarily be attracted to the new capital and neglect other regions of the country. This situation can lead to an increase in regional inequalities and exacerbate poverty in underdeveloped areas. Ultimately, one of the most significant consequences of this plan is the influx of irregular migration to the new hub. The attractiveness of new economic opportunities in this region may also result in a widespread internal migration, which can lead to the depletion of human capital in central and border regions and, consequently, weaken development capacities in these areas.

In order to prevent the formation of new inequalities, policies for balanced development and fair distribution of resources should be prioritized. The government, before transferring the capital, should also strengthen the infrastructure of underdeveloped regions so that economic development can be achieved in a comprehensive and decentralized manner, rather than being focused on a specific region. The creation of special economic zones throughout the country can be a catalyst for economic growth in all regions and prevent excessive investment concentration in one economic hub. Strengthening the regional planning system is also essential in order to formulate development policies based on local capacities and needs. In addition, managing internal migration through the development of appropriate settlement policies to prevent overcrowding in the new capital should also be on the agenda. Ultimately, only by adopting a comprehensive and balanced approach can we prevent the repetition of economic discrimination and regional disparities.

Obstacles to transferring the capital from Tehran to Makran.

The transfer of the capital to the Makran region is facing serious obstacles and challenges in the following dimensions:

Economic barriers.

Heavy Financial Costs: Building new infrastructures such as government offices, housing, roads, hospitals, and city services requires a huge budget.

Budget Pressure: This project can limit the financial resources of other development sectors.

Short-term unprofitability: The return on investment in such projects is time-consuming and may not yield tangible results in the short term.

Infrastructure obstacles.

Lack of basic infrastructure in Makran: This region lacks the necessary infrastructure to fulfill its role as a capital.

Problem in providing water and energy: Limited water resources and inadequate infrastructure for energy supply are considered as the main obstacles.

Geographical distance from important population and economic centers: Being far from densely populated areas can have a negative impact on economic and social interactions.

Environmental barriers.

Water Resource Limitations: Makran is facing a crisis of water scarcity and extensive urban development can exacerbate this problem.

Vulnerability to Climate Change: Intense heat and the possibility of natural phenomena such as floods can create risks.

Social and political barriers.

Political disagreement: Differences of opinion between government institutions and lack of political consensus can hinder the implementation process of this plan.

Popular Resistance: Relocating the capital can face opposition from social groups, especially residents of Tehran.

Problems caused by internal migration: The concentration of economic opportunities in the new capital may lead to widespread migration, which can put pressure on local infrastructure.

Legal and administrative barriers.

Legal and Juridical Complexities: Changing the Administrative and Legal Center of the Country Requires Extensive Reforms in Laws and Regulations.

Reconstruction of Government Structures: The transfer of ministries and various institutions to the new capital requires extensive changes in administrative and organizational structures.

Buttocks.

The idea of transferring the capital from Tehran to Makran, although it may be proposed with goals such as reducing centralization, developing regions, and utilizing geopolitical capacities, can have multiple negative consequences without precise and balanced planning. These consequences may include increasing economic and social inequalities. In order for this plan to be successful, the government must prevent the creation of new centralization through comprehensive planning, providing necessary infrastructure, and fair distribution of resources, and instead focus on sustainable and balanced development throughout the country. However, in the current circumstances, due to limited resources, inefficient management, widespread corruption, and legal challenges, the implementation of this plan is practically not possible.