Power outages: both a cause and a consequence of crises

Let’s begin the story of power outages with Syria. For those who have not followed developments there, the recent events might seem unexpected. However, anyone who has monitored Syria’s situation since the internal conflicts would inevitably ask: Why haven’t the Syrian people brought this to a conclusion?

One of the main indicators of this situation, highlighted in recent media coverage and analyses, is chronic power outages. How long can urban residents, accustomed to city life for decades, endure having electricity for only 2 to 4 hours a day over an extended period? Especially when, just a few kilometers away in Idlib, under Turkish protection, there is uninterrupted electricity 24/7. In urban life, the lack of electricity can become a fundamental reason for governments reaching a deadlock.

Our first thought about power outages might be grappling with dark nights, especially during the long, cold nights of winter. However, Iranians’ lived experience with power outages has evolved in recent years—from times when generators became essential daily necessities to the recent era of scheduled outages that forced people to align their personal routines with electricity department schedules. Yet, the real impacts of power outages run much deeper.

No aspect of industry has been able to continue without electricity for years. Repeated outages, particularly due to their direct impact on productivity, do not entirely halt industries but leave them barely functioning. As a result, a significant portion of “wage earners” becomes a “reserve army of labor”—a direct consequence of limited electricity supply. Workers and small business owners suffer more profound and acute damages from recurring outages, even if industrial infrastructures manage to survive in their semi-functional state.

Why does electricity go out?

The memory of scarce generators dates back to the dark years of Ahmadinejad’s administration. My generation vividly recalls the post-2006 period (1385 SH) when we lived through wartime conditions—despite no war being underway. Repeated and prolonged summer power cuts, gas shortages, and lines for heating oil in certain cities during winter. While the country’s insufficient electricity production has infrastructural roots, Ahmadinejad symbolized the intersection and intensification of these factors.

The underlying reasons for the persistent decline in the ratio of electricity production to consumption date back to the late Pahlavi era. As reports from the years leading up to the revolution indicate, repeated power cuts began around 1971 (1350 SH). A sudden increase in urban populations and the establishment of industrial centers gradually created a gap between electricity production and consumption—a gap that has grown annually over the past forty years. The decline in hydroelectric power due to the convergence of water management crises with drought, the aging of thermal power plants, and insufficient investment in updating electricity production technologies have weakened the country’s electricity infrastructure. On the other hand, per capita electricity consumption has consistently risen.

The shortage of any commodity anywhere in the world is not a mechanical function of supply and demand. Multiple variables can alter the relationship between supply and demand, even when producers and consumers remain constant. Educational, cultural, and structural preparations for managing household electricity consumption, introducing effective changes in industrial electricity use efficiency, and redistributing production across various energy sources are all factors that could mitigate electricity shortages and have been studied in various research efforts. It is precisely here that the Islamic Republic’s crisis of governance imposes its impact on power outages.

At the same time, these blackouts are not solely domestic in origin. A large portion of the country’s power plants faces severe aging and cannot operate at full capacity. Reports from power plant overhaul companies reveal that repairs and maintenance in some plants have reached the level of “patchwork.” This deterioration, coupled with a lack of equipment, has also rendered transmission stations and electricity lines inefficient, turning them into major sources of energy loss. Sanctions, as a form of collective punishment against tens of millions of Iranians, affect every aspect of life in the country. From an industrial and technical standpoint, electricity shortages are one of the main consequences.

The Ahmadinejad era epitomized the accumulation and intensification of these issues. Reduced production, mismanagement, and the effects of sanctions simultaneously worsened under Ahmadinejad’s governance, making that period not only the darkest in energy supply but also one with severe infrastructural consequences for subsequent years.

What does a lack of electricity do to the country?

For my generation, memories of power outages in the 1990s (1370s SH) and even into the 2000s (1380s SH) include fumbling in the dark for candles and matches—an experience that has largely faded with the widespread use of mobile phones. Yet for much of society, the experience of power outages is limited to temporary disruptions in daily life. However, it is clear that the repercussions of power outages go far beyond such interruptions. Power cuts cause severe harm to jobs, the economy, and social life.

One of the most common effects of power outages for much of society is their impact on small businesses. Although small businesses have a limited effect on gross domestic product calculations, their influence on employment, direct impact on people’s livelihoods, and role in financial circulation make them major players. These businesses are often the first victims of repeated power outages. Economic activities halt due to blackouts, and perishable goods or temperature-sensitive products are wasted, creating a situation where costs rise even as income decreases. Small businesses, which always operate on the brink of collapse, are easily pushed over the edge by repeated power cuts.

The harm caused by power outages to large industries is similar. Increased production costs and reduced output create a productivity crisis in major industries. Additionally, recurring outages raise maintenance costs. Over time, this cycle inflicts another critical blow: increased production costs directly affect the final product price, eroding competitiveness. Industries are forced to choose between raising prices, thereby losing customers, or narrowing profit margins.

Power outages also severely impact digital economies, which depend entirely on electricity. The simplest consequence is the cessation of work. However, recurring outages pose another threat: the loss of data or compromised data security during power cuts.

The compounded effects of these individual damages are reflected in macroeconomic variables. While it is difficult to isolate the specific impact of power outages amidst the staggering figures for recession, unemployment, and inflation, it is clear that outages significantly affect each of these indicators. Gradually, power outages dim not only the lights but also the economy.

Power outages and class inequality

Statistics indicate that electricity consumption in Iran’s industrial sector has always been slightly higher than residential consumption. However, in 2015 (1394 SH), this balance shifted for one year. The Ministry of Energy typically maintains a balance between power cuts in industrial centers and urban residential areas. In 2015, residential electricity consumption surpassed industrial consumption, leading to more frequent industrial power cuts.

At that time, I worked at a large industrial facility in Tabriz. Due to the policy of outsourcing labor supply to contracting companies, a significant portion of the workforce was employed by contractors. During that year, repeated power cuts reduced production, profit margins, and contractor revenues, directly impacting wages. This arbitrary wage reduction led to a major strike involving over a thousand workers. While management eventually restored wages and gradually dismissed strike organizers, the factory and contracting companies remained unaffected.

This example illustrates the class-based impact of power outages. Lower-income groups are the first to suffer job losses. Furthermore, even announced outages disproportionately affect working-class areas before reaching affluent neighborhoods. Thus, even at the level of daily life, power outages have a more pronounced impact on lower-income groups.

A political issue

The issue of power outages, given its social, economic, and political dimensions in Iran, undoubtedly warrants discussion on “what is to be done.” Such a significant issue cannot be explained through terms like the “technocratic aspect of governance.” From the relationship between mismanagement and sanctions worsening daily life to the need for effective social interventions in electricity-related decisions, these aspects underscore the fundamentally political nature of the issue.

Both the immediate effects of electricity shortages on society and the economy, and the long-term lack of infrastructure, present enduring challenges. Iran suffers from both the current situation and its long-term consequences. At the intersection of these two aspects lies the need for effective civil society interventions—both to protest the current situation and to find solutions. If these blackouts affect all of us, we must see ourselves as part of the solution to turn the lights back on.

Footnote:
The title is inspired by a poem by Forough Farrokhzad:
“The lights of connection are out
No one will introduce me
To the sun.”
Forough Farrokhzad