Power outages have a long history in the collective memory of Iranians. Widespread blackouts began during the war and continued until 1988 (1367 SH). However, from 1988 to 2008, the country experienced only occasional and temporary blackouts, specifically in 2001 and 2003 due to unexpected events. In 2008, due to reduced water reserves in dams caused by drought, prolonged and nationwide power outages occurred for several months. However, in 2020 (1399 SH), planned, long-lasting, and widespread power outages returned to Iranian cities for the first time in three decades since the war. (1)

It seems this year is particularly unique in this regard. In recent years, and especially after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war, officials have repeatedly warned of a “harsh winter” in Europe. But this time, it appears the harsh winter has gripped Iran itself. The situation escalated to the point where the new Islamic Republic administration announced scheduled nationwide power cuts. Citizens’ efforts to access the blackout schedule caused the website of the Tehran Electricity Distribution Company to go offline. (2)

The public’s view of these outages carries significant insights. According to a public opinion survey conducted within the country by the Sarvayeh Opinion Polling Center in mid-Mehr 1403 (October 2023), over 50% of citizens believe that “mismanagement of resources” is the primary reason for power outages, while 19.7% attribute the blackouts to increased consumption and the lack of conservation, or more precisely, the failure to adhere to consumption patterns. (3)

The President of the Islamic Republic, following meteorological reports of a polar storm entering Iran and weather warnings issued for several cold provinces, proposed reducing household and workplace temperatures as a solution to the frequent power outages. He urged citizens to lower their indoor temperatures by two degrees to help manage the country’s fuel supply. After Massoud Pezeshkian, the government spokesperson also called on people to join the “Two Degrees Less” campaign, writing on his social media account: “To experience less air pollution, manage our fuel, and ensure industries keep running, we all need to lower our home temperatures by two degrees and join the ‘Two Degrees Less’ campaign.” (4)

This decision by the President came after ambiguities raised earlier in Aban 1403 (November 2023) by the Deputy Speaker of Parliament regarding government decisions on mazut consumption and power outages. The Deputy Speaker had remarked: “There are ambiguities in this matter that the esteemed government must clarify.” (5) Apparently, previous measures have not worked, prompting the President to turn to the public with the “Two Degrees Less” initiative. Earlier, in Khordad 1403 (June 2023), the managing director of Tavanir identified Iranian citizens as the primary cause of the imbalance in electricity distribution, stating: “About 33% of the country’s total electricity production—equivalent to 32,000 to 33,000 megawatts—is consumed by the residential sector,” adding that “this figure rises to 50% during peak summer hours due to cooling appliances.” (6)

Now that summer has passed, the President, through this campaign, is effectively reducing the entire issue of energy imbalance and the government’s policy failures to household electricity consumption.

Citizens and social media users have expressed a wide range of opinions reflecting public sentiment and the broader implications of power outages in Iran. Among them, supporters of the two main political factions within the system—Principlists and Reformists—point fingers at each other. Supporters of Pezeshkian’s administration and Reformists blame the previous administration for energy imbalances and power outages.

For example, Nasser Torkan, son of Akbar Torkan (a founding member of the Justice and Development Party and former advisor to President Hassan Rouhani), wrote on the X platform: “We have no water, no electricity, no gas. That saddled horse turned out to be a mule. Its saddle is old, it’s lame, and it’s pregnant with an elephant. It can’t even produce milk. To the officials of the 13th government: What have you done to this country in three years?” Torkan accompanied his post with the hashtag “DisabledGovernment” and a photo of Ebrahim Raisi’s cabinet before his assassination—possibly the last image of the 13th government’s cabinet.

On the opposing side, Principlists and supporters of Saeed Jalili blame the power outages on Pezeshkian’s administration, Reformists, and Moderates within the system. Responses to Torkan’s post on X reflect this. One user replied: “That saddled horse had no water or power outages in winter for three years. The only difference is that the new rider doesn’t know how to ride.”

Torkan responded: “How can all these problems stem from just a few months of mismanagement?” The same user, who describes himself on X as a political analyst, founder of Bayraq News, judo practitioner, and calligrapher, replied: “Yes, poor management can ruin a system in just a few months. How long did it take for the Tea Debsh, Mobarakeh Steel, and Sarmayeh Bank scandals to happen?”

This exchange, along with similar conversations on social media platforms, symbolizes the political blame game within the system. One faction, newly in power, attributes the responsibility for power outages and energy imbalances to the previous administration, while the other, formerly in power, now criticizes the current administration for these issues.

Reactions from prominent figures and ordinary citizens also highlight widespread frustration. Adel Ferdowsipour commented on the power cuts: “We’re approaching 2025, and no other country has power cuts on this scale. Many people rely on electricity for heating during winter. While conservation is important, the blackouts shouldn’t be this frequent.” (7)

Meanwhile, Bulletin News, an outlet affiliated with the IRGC, highlighted a user’s comment: “iPhone registration for the wealthy has been allowed, while power is cut for the poor.” According to Bulletin News, users believe: “Pezeshkian’s government started blackouts in underprivileged areas, while affluent neighborhoods impose the main burden on the power grid.” (8)

Many neutral users, unaffiliated with either faction, hold the entire system accountable. One user joked: “Didn’t the Supreme Leader say we’re nearing the peak? Of course, it’s hard work climbing a steep slope, so power and gas are running out.” Another wrote: “Now you see why Israel doesn’t need to target our so-called infrastructure? They’re falling apart on their own.”

This year’s autumn blackouts and the ominous prospect of winter outages are unprecedented in the post-war era. This regression to the 1980s, in a society that has endured the protests and movements of 1999, 2009, 2017, 2019, and 2022, has created new challenges for the regime.

One user with Qassem Soleimani’s image on his X profile sarcastically asked: “A burning question, dear scholars: with the current situation, who gets the generator in the dowry—the groom or the bride?”

Whether the Islamic Republic can survive and manage this crisis remains to be seen. However, it seems that if the “god of the 1980s regime” has returned, so too has the dire state of its energy and electricity infrastructure. This regression highlights the failures of over four decades of governance.

Footnotes:

1. History of blackouts in the country/Iran’s most extensive blackouts, infographic, Tejarat News, November 21, 2024.
2. “Harsh winter begins in Iran”; Pezeshkian’s administration starts regular power outages across the country, Euronews, November 10, 2024.
3. The main reason for power outages according to the public, ISNA, Mehr 17, 1403.
4. President calls for lowering home and workplace temperatures by two degrees, Etemad Daily, December 15, 2024.
5. Deputy Speaker of Parliament reacts to power cuts: Ambiguities that the government must clarify, Donya-e-Eqtesad, November 11, 2024.
6. Tavanir CEO: 33% of the country’s electricity is consumed by households, ISNA, June 16, 2024.
7. Watch| Adel Ferdowsipour reacts to power outages in Iran, Haft Sobh, December 18, 2024.
8. User reactions to power outages: Blackouts for the underprivileged? Bulletin News, November 11, 2024.