In recent weeks, there have been protests in Iran against the social conditions and the death of Mahsa Amini in all provinces of the country. Although it cannot be said with certainty that the growth and spread of poverty is the main reason for the recent protests, the spread of poverty is certainly one of the effective factors in the country. With the worsening of the macroeconomic situation, economic recession, and continuous decline in per capita income in recent years, the situation of the poor in Iran has also worsened; to the extent that the World Bank has reported a three-fold increase in the number of poor people in Iran during the period of 2019-2013 in its latest report; however, media close to the thirteenth government considered this performance to be related to the government of Hassan Rouhani and sought to absolve it. These media outlets have forgotten that the seemingly revolutionary thirteenth government had promised to eradicate absolute poverty last year and not let poverty reach 1401. It

Absolute poverty and relative poverty

Extreme poverty is defined as the lack of access to the three basic needs of food, clothing, and shelter, and the lack of sufficient resources for individuals to sustain their lives. Absolute poverty is measured based on daily income criteria of one dollar and ninety cents or three dollars and ten cents at the global level. Extreme poverty is also characterized by the lack of access to basic services such as health care and education. Adequate access to water, energy, leisure, and other non-food needs are also considered in determining relative poverty. The lack of access to basic services and the inability to afford them are major factors contributing to absolute poverty.

World Bank Report

As mentioned, the World Bank defines extreme poverty in its reports as living on less than $1.9 per day (based on the 2011 Purchasing Power Parity index). Based on this, in 2013, the proportion of the population living in extreme poverty in Iran was 0.2%, but according to this report, this proportion has tripled to 0.6% in 2019 (the latest published data by the World Bank). Although reports from international organizations may face errors due to lack of access to local data, official reports also indicate an increase in poverty in Iran.

Tripling poverty

The World Bank’s report mentions that in 1990, with the end of the eight-year war, approximately 6.2% of Iran’s population faced absolute poverty, which was the highest figure in Iran’s economic history. This figure was reduced to almost half in 1998, reaching 2.9%. With the implementation of targeted subsidy programs in 2005, the proportion of people living in absolute poverty in Iran decreased to about one-fifth of the total population. This index decreased to 0.2% in 2013, which is the lowest recorded figure for absolute poverty in Iran according to World Bank statistics. From 2015 to 2017, the level of absolute poverty in Iran remained unchanged at 0.4%, but in 2018, the proportion of people living in absolute poverty in Iran increased to 0.5%, and again in 2019, it reached 0.6%.

Statistical Report

According to the World Bank report, 0.6% of Iran’s population, or approximately half a million Iranians, were living in absolute poverty in 2009 (equivalent to 1398 in the Persian calendar) and had difficulty accessing food, clothing, or housing. This is despite official figures confirming these conditions. For example, a recent report from the Statistical Center of Iran showed that the number of people living on less than one dollar a day was also equivalent to 0.6%, which has tripled in the past six years. The table below shows official figures for the population living on less than one and two dollars during the period of 1384 to 1399; based on this, the number of people living on less than two dollars a day has increased from 0.26% of the population to 0.79%, which is around six and a half million people.

Poor or poorer

While the population living below the extreme poverty line in Iran in 2019 was equivalent to 0.6% of the total population, there are different statistics regarding relative poverty. Data from the Iranian Welfare Organization also shows that 6.4 million households are in the lower three deciles of income, which accounts for 26% of the total population of Iran. In other words, 26% of the country’s population are in need of government assistance for their basic needs. On the other hand, according to the latest statistics published by the Deputy of Welfare at the Ministry of Cooperatives, Labor, and Social Welfare, around 38% of the population in Iran live in poverty and are in need of government welfare assistance. Therefore, it seems that the level of poverty is much more widespread than what has been claimed by the World Bank.

Per capita income

Another criterion that indicates the extent of poverty is per capita income, which has also been used as a measure in the World Bank report. According to the World Bank report, Iranian per capita income has decreased from $8,389 in 2011 to less than half in six years ( $4,046) and then further dropped to $2,756 in 2020. In fact, the purchasing power of Iranians has faced a 67% decrease in a decade. In other words, the purchasing power in 2020 is one-third of what it was in 2011. The decrease in per capita income means that the society has become poorer over time. With the downward trend in per capita income over the past decade, it can be said with certainty that a larger number of Iranians have become trapped in providing for themselves.

Recent unrest

In recent weeks, there have been unrest in Iran in protest against social conditions and the death of Mahsa Amini in all provinces of the country. Although it cannot be said with certainty that the growth and spread of poverty is the main reason for the recent protests, it is without a doubt that only social issues cannot lead to such protests. It is natural for the poor population, who have no better way to make a living, to protest against their conditions; of course, it may be thought that this time, part of the middle and affluent urban class have also joined the protests, but the existence of protests in different areas and cities raises doubts about this assumption. Perhaps some of the economic roots of these events can be seen in the song “For…” where concrete examples of inequalities and frustrations of Iranian society are clearly expressed; of course, investigating this issue requires further discussion, but it can be said that the recent protests have highlighted the importance of paying attention to the extent and severity of poverty for

Notes:

1- For more information, refer to: World Bank Database.

2- For more information, refer to: the website of the Statistical Center of Iran.

3- For more information, refer to: Ministry of Cooperatives, Labor, and Social Welfare, Welfare Deputy.

4- Absolute poverty in Iran has tripled, online trust, 18 Shahrivar 1401.

5- Poverty Knowledge Base, Collection of Multidimensional Poverty Reports; Energy and Water Poverty in Iran, 19th of August 2021.