The final month of autumn began with widespread power outages in Tehran and other major cities. Continuous closures attributed to cold weather and power shortages have affected most provinces. The first round of outages began in late November, prompting the president to respond quickly, assuring citizens that residential electricity would no longer be cut off. However, by December, energy imbalances led Masoud Pezeshkian to retract this statement. Soon after, not only homes but also industrial centers and non-essential stores were left without electricity.

Those who had experienced the blackouts of summer 2021 hoped that the end of the 13th government might bring consistent electricity under the Pezeshkian administration. Yet, energy imbalances and electricity smuggling proved stronger than a change in government, leading to various campaigns by the administration to reduce energy consumption.

The “2 Degrees Lower” Campaign

The “2 Degrees Lower” campaign, spearheaded by Masoud Pezeshkian and Fatemeh Mohajerani (the government spokesperson), demonstrated that proper management of electricity production and distribution was unaffected by a change in administration. Even during Hassan Rouhani’s presidency, Iranians, living in a country rich in natural gas, struggled to keep their lights on and maintain a comfortably warm home by adjusting their heating systems as needed.

According to the IRNA news agency, the relationship between electricity consumption and gas shortages is clear: “The latest assessment of the country’s power plants shows that there is no lack of capacity to supply electricity. However, the current power shortages are caused by increased gas consumption in the residential sector.” Naser Eskandari, Deputy Director of Production Operations at the Thermal Power Plant Management Company, stated: “We managed to compensate with approximately 2.6 billion liters of liquid fuel through diesel and another 2.4 billion liters of mazut. Cumulatively, since the start of the year (1403), about 88% more mazut has been used in power plants. Despite this, over 8,500 megawatts of power plants have been taken offline due to fuel shortages.” (1)

Government Response

Since its inauguration, the Pezeshkian administration has not only failed to provide sufficient electricity for citizens but also increased residential electricity rates. The administration’s only action has been to apologize. In response to sudden power outages, the government spokesperson merely apologized for the lack of prior notice and stated: “It is the people’s right to be informed of blackout schedules, and we will follow up with Tavanir (Iran’s power company) about the lack of communication. We are monitoring the situation daily.” (2)

Nevertheless, citizens’ grievances extend beyond the lack of prior notice. It seems that even the government was unaware of the timing and nature of blackouts, such as the widespread outage on Thursday, December 12, 1403. The Iran newspaper shed light on the background of this sudden outage:

“It’s worth noting a significant comment regarding the cause of the sudden network blackout on the evening of Thursday, December 12, which may clarify some of the Fourteenth Government’s challenges in managing imbalances. Ali Akbar Mehrabian, the former Minister of Energy, had stated in late spring this year that approximately 18,000 megawatts of electricity imbalance was anticipated due to a shortfall of about 4 million liters of fuel storage. Experts from Tavanir explained the necessity of the sudden blackout last week, noting that if the power had not been cut, a widespread crisis would have occurred, and restoring electricity to the national grid would have taken several days. This issue primarily stemmed from fuel shortages at power plants. The imbalance on Thursday led to increased pressure on the national grid, which Tavanir managed by implementing hourly power cuts to minimize damage. All of these factors point to a severe crisis of imbalance in the electricity sector, which the Fourteenth Government is striving to manage with minimal harm to citizens and the national power grid.” (3)

Heavy Toll of Power Outages on Internet and Industry

Following disruptions to internet services in December, the Ministry of Communications and Information Technology cited power outages and depleted battery backups at telecommunications sites as the primary causes. The Ministry’s public relations center issued a statement, attributing disruptions in Tehran and other cities to “power outages at mobile operators’ sites and inefficiencies in electricity storage systems.” The report also noted that some issues stemmed from battery failures at operator sites, and the ministry had held numerous meetings with operators over the past month to address and resolve these issues. (4) Despite the Ministry’s statement on December 15, 1403, internet disruptions persist, with speculation attributing the problems to ongoing power shortages.

On the industrial front, power outages have crippled operations in industrial zones, putting workers’ jobs at risk. A leaked audio file attributed to Seyyed Sajjad Hashemi, an industrialist and board member of the Abbasabad Industrial Zone in Tehran, reveals his frustration as he speaks to Mostafa Rajabi Mashhadi, CEO of Tavanir:

“We have no electricity, no gas, no secondary fuel. You’ve announced power cuts from 8 a.m. to 10 p.m. daily—what am I supposed to do with my 45,000 employees? In March, I have to pay salaries, bonuses, and leave compensations. How is an industrialist supposed to operate? Cold storage facilities full of food are in crisis. If you can’t manage, step aside and let others take over. If you can’t plan, give us the responsibility. You’ve taken advance payments from industrialists for power plant fuel, and now you claim there’s no fuel? You’ve crushed workers and left us no avenue for protest. Industrialists are fleeing the zones. Even after power is restored at 10 p.m., any consumption exceeding 15% leads to immediate cuts again. We can’t live like this. Please, give us an answer.”

Electricity Smuggling

Electricity smuggling has also been identified as a significant contributor to severe shortages in December. Addressing energy imbalances, Mohammad Allahdad, Deputy for Transmission and International Trade, stated:

“The consumption of illegal cryptocurrency miners is equivalent to the volume of smuggled fuel in the country. One unauthorized miner operating at home consumes the equivalent of one liter of diesel per hour. We are currently facing a severe electricity smuggling issue, and part of the shortfall in electricity supply to customers is due to this. So far, approximately 800 megawatts of unauthorized mining equipment have been confiscated, with their power consumption equivalent to the capacity of the Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant.” (6)

A Multi-Faceted Crisis

As freezing temperatures intensify and power outages resume—a rare occurrence in most winters—citizens’ frustration and anger with the government have escalated. Severe shortages of electricity and gas have become palpable for everyone and are now a supra-governmental issue. The strain of sanctions could render governments incapable of increasing energy production capacity, as these problems stem from years of neglect and wear on power plants and oil and gas extraction facilities, requiring hundreds of billions of dollars in investment.

References:

1. “What is the Condition of Power Plants in the Country?” IRNA, December 16, 1403.
2. “Government Spokesperson’s Comments on Unannounced Power Outages,” KhabarOnline, December 17, 1403.
3. “Emergency Decision-Making: What Was Behind Thursday’s Sudden Power Outage?” Iran Newspaper, December 14, 1403.
4. “Ministry of Communications: Power Outages Caused Internet Disruptions,” Tasnim, December 13, 1403.
5. “Power Outages Are the Main Cause of Internet Disruptions,” Donya-e-Eqtesad, December 14, 1403.
6. “We Are Facing Severe Electricity Smuggling,” ILNA, December 17, 1403.