From the fear of population decline to the fear of aging population, these are concerns that have been brought to light in Iran due to the implementation of the Youth Population Law by the President of the Islamic Republic. These fears are due to the downward trend in births in Iran, which the head of the Committee for Population Studies and Monitoring of Population Policies of the Supreme Council of the Cultural Revolution sees as a sharp decline and states that it is possible for Iran’s population to decrease to 72 million by 2020 (1). This, along with the ideological reasons that led to the growth of births in the 1990s, has caused the rulers of the Islamic Republic to seek an increase in births in Iran. In November 2013, the leader of the Islamic Republic mentioned a population of 150 million (2), and now it seems that, as usual, the leader’s policies are being implemented by the parliament known as the Revolutionary and the government known by the same name.

But the issue of population decline and what is known as aging population is not unique to Iran. According to statistics from the World Population Review website, countries like Japan are also facing population decline. In this statistic, the names of some Eastern European countries, from Russia to Ukraine, Serbia, and Croatia, stand out. Let’s reflect on this and turn to Japan, the third largest economy in the world and the fourth largest in terms of purchasing power parity. An Eastern country with ancient traditions and customs, but what are the solutions for Japan? Surely the first solution is to increase childbirth, the most immediate solution that can be taken. In Japan, they have pursued this solution by providing opportunities for working mothers and creating childcare centers (similar to our kindergartens), but increasing fertility is not an overnight solution; it also requires cultural change among the people. In 2014, it was predicted that if Japan wants to solve its population problem by increasing fertility, it would have to wait for

The example of Japan was deliberately mentioned above to illustrate certain points. Japan, with its rich cultural and historical heritage, is a country that rose from the ashes of defeat in World War II to become one of the world’s economic powerhouses. Despite strong traditions, the country has been able to attract both skilled and unskilled labor through short and long-term planning. In this regard, the skill level of the immigrant is a crucial factor, rather than whether the country the individual is coming from is part of a strategic alliance, such as a resistance front, or not.

The central issue for the rulers of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the Youth Law is still the increase in population growth. The point is that for such an event, the necessary infrastructure and facilities are needed, which in today’s Iran, given the economic situation, existing sanctions, and systematic corruption in the governing structure, achieving them is more like a wish than a reality; for example, parents should receive financial assistance from the government for the care and expenses of their children. Let us not forget that according to the Deputy of Social Welfare of the Ministry of Cooperatives, Labor, and Social Welfare, 26 million people out of the 80 million population of Iran are living below the poverty line until 2020, and we know that this number has only increased since then. Absolute poverty is when an individual or household does not have the means to meet their basic needs. Access to food, clean drinking water, adequate shelter, basic education, and essential health services are among these basic needs. This

Another possibility that has been considered in developed countries for increasing birth rates is making the work environment more flexible for families. When the possibility of part-time work with sufficient income is available, parents will have the opportunity to take care of their children. Gunnar Andersson, head of the Department of Demography at Stockholm University, says there is an understanding in Sweden that at a certain point in their lives, both men and women will have young children and will need to return home earlier than others to take care of them (6). This cultural norm in Sweden has made it possible for people to have children; although with all these policies, the population growth rate in Sweden in 2020 was only 0.17%.

Unfortunately, another barrier to this is the traditional male-dominated culture in Iran, which hinders the understanding of shared household chores and men’s involvement in household work. Women are responsible for the majority of tasks from pregnancy to caring for the newborn, breastfeeding, and other stages in the home. When women are forced to do both household work and take care of children, and also work outside due to the economic situation of the country, and the man in the family is not willing to cooperate, the possibility of having children for a family becomes very difficult. Let’s go back to the example of Sweden. Professor Gunnar Andersson says that Swedish men are fully involved in household work alongside women, and take on the primary responsibility for household work at least in the first year after the birth of a child (6).

But Professor George Leeson from the Oxford Institute of Population Ageing says that from a demographic perspective, none of these methods are effective solutions. The fertility rate in Western Europe has been below replacement level since the 1970s, yet population growth continues. Leeson points to immigration as a recent factor in population growth.

In fact, this migration has been used as a solution to reduce the population as the main policy for years in Central and Western Europe. For example, a study titled “Changing Migration as a Solution to Population Decline” published on the website of the Austrian Academy of Sciences this year (2021) concludes that changing migration policies can be considered as a solution to population decline. This study, which focused on Norway, showed that despite the drastic decrease in migration in Norway (and halving of migration statistics), it has had a significant and noticeable impact on the population; meaning that increasing migration in this country directly affects the active and working population of Norway. This research states that increasing birth rates is a long-term issue (as mentioned in the case of Japan) and that the only solution to increasing population and consequently workforce and production in society is through increasing the possibility of migration; a case that also applies to Portugal (with a population growth rate of only 0.2%). The negative trend of migration

Iranian rulers, however, seemingly have no interest in immigration; it’s as if they have no interest in the return of communities, people, and lands that were separated from Iran through the treaties of Gulistan and Turkmenchay. After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, people in cities such as Baku, Talesh, Ganja, Lenkoran, Ardabil, Nakhchivan, and others wrote letters expressing their desire to join Iran, but the government of Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani did not take any action. The excuse was a policy of non-interference in wars, but the main reason could have been that the people who had lived under the Soviet Union for decades had a vast cultural difference from the dominant culture of the Islamic Republic in the south of the Aras River; in fact, their addition to Iran after the war and the massacre of political prisoners during the consolidation of the regime would create a cultural conflict that would take the

The eighteenth Bromer Louis Bonaparte.

“Hegel says that all events and personalities in history occur twice. He forgets to add: first as tragedy, second as comedy.”

What men are after in the population’s youth plan, and as Saleh Qasemi says in an interview with “Tasnim”, is of the same nature as the repetition of history in a comedic way, as Marx says; with the difference that this time the comedy can be so bitter that instead of laughter, it brings tears to the nation’s soul. A nation where the majority of its population lives below the poverty line and has a population of eighty million, is supposed to reach a population of one hundred and fifty million according to the leader’s plans. It’s as if the world is going one way and we are going another. The reinvention and expensive use of the wheel is the expertise of men in Iran.

Notes:

1- The head of the Committee for Population Studies and Monitoring of Social Policies of the Secretariat of the Supreme Council of Cultural Revolution, ISNA, August 6, 2021.

2- Leader of Iran: We want at least 150 million people, BBC Persian, 9 November 2013.

3- Sito, Jun, Is Migration a Solution for Reducing Japan’s Population?, National University of Australia – Australia-Japan Research Center, Issue 2 (4), August 2014.

4- Iran on the verge of accepting “foreign immigrants” to compensate for its population deficit! / Turning the “population crisis” into the Achilles heel of the system!, Tasnim News Agency, August 15, 2021.

5- According to the data of the poverty monitoring report, approximately 60 million people are living below the absolute poverty line, ILNA, 20 October 2021.

6- Haggarty, Stephanie, How do you convince people to have children?, BBC News, May 16, 2021.

What are the solutions for countries to prevent population decline?, IRNA, 9th of Khordad month, 1400.