The world population began to grow rapidly after the end of the Great Famine and the Black Death (plague epidemic) in 1350, increasing from around 370 million to its current amount. Annual population growth reached over 1.8% for a short period in the 1950s and for a longer period in the 1960s and 1970s, experiencing its peak growth of 2.3% in 1963. The rate of population growth then gradually decreased and reached 1.1% in 2011. In that year, approximately 134 million people were born and 50 million people died. It is predicted that in the future years, the birth rate will remain constant, but the death rate will increase, reaching 80 million deaths per year by 2040.

The leaders of the Islamic Republic generally refer to the Zionist and imperialist control over population as a whole and usually mention less about the harms of population control or reduction from their own perspective. However, it seems that the main reason for their concerns can be found in population reduction (or lack of population growth). In any case, population and land area are considered as indicators of a country or government’s power, and the more military and security-minded the rulers are, and the more they constantly define their situation as warlike and crisis-ridden, the more these indicators become prominent in their view, and they pay less attention to more modern indicators such as growth rate, inflation, women’s employment, and the like. Many people who try to theorize the statements of the leaders of the system, led by Ayatollah Khamenei, cite high population density in Japan, Indonesia, France, and Germany as examples to prove the leader’s demands, and introduce the high population of Muslims as a

The result of the author’s research in books and articles of supporters of population growth is that there is no other significant reason mentioned for population growth and the rest of the presented content is probably not taken seriously by most of their writers.

If the Islamic Republic system did not define itself in conflict with international order and utilized the achievements of modernity, democracy, and cooperation with the people, its leaders would surely understand that the safest countries in the world today follow the models of non-military security and establish their security and power on the basis of trade and true representation of the government by the people. However, the reality is that this government is in extreme crisis and free trade with the global community or cooperation with the people of Iran changes its nature. The more the people of Iran need non-military security, the Islamic Republic is seeking military security. An increase in population, if not accompanied by an equal or higher rate of capital growth, will lead to a decrease in the quality of life for citizens and will cause the country to face its own specific social problems.

Continuous political unrest, both among elites and in society, is one of the issues that can cast its shadow even on the next government and hinder the wheels of democracy, greatly reducing human rights indicators. The decrease in government capabilities, the crisis of elite succession and the resulting conflicts, and the increase in the potential of mass movements without civil responsibility are the consequences of population growth with limited or uneven development.

The safest countries in the world today follow the models of non-militarized security and establish their security and power on the basis of trade and genuine representation of the government from the nation. However, the reality is that the Republic…

“Islam is extremely critical and free trade with the global community or partnership with the Iranian nation changes its nature.”

In the previous section, we mentioned the crisis of government power reduction. However, in a society with rich resources, the unity of elites has helped to maintain the government to some extent and there is potential for reforms and maintaining a minimum level of economic quality. The decrease in government capacity does not necessarily lead to serious crises. However, in countries with polarized societies like Iran, where the unity of elites is constantly challenged, the decrease in government capacity can ignite internal conflicts on a large scale and worsen human suffering and human rights violations. This bitter reality will not be limited to the era of the Islamic Republic and even if the country is run in a democratic form, the content of it will be undemocratic, leading to the crisis of democracy and eventually destroying its form.

The increase in population pressure and shortage of resources, followed by the concentration of wealth in certain groups and the harm caused to others, will increase the Gini coefficient and bring class differences to a critical point. A weak government or an ineffective democracy will not be able to control the conflict between elites and maintain order, and the framework of balance and distribution of wealth will be shattered. When the government weakens, the elites will strike their own deal, resolve their conflicts by force, and ultimately stand against the government, tearing society apart and causing division.

Continuous political unrest, both among elites and in society, is one of the problems that can cast its shadow even on the next government and hinder the wheels of democracy, greatly reducing human rights indicators. The weakening of the government’s capabilities, the crisis of elite succession and the resulting conflicts, and the increase in the potential of mass movements that usually lack civil burden are among the consequences of population growth with limited or uneven development.

National or regional division, alongside population pressure and resource scarcity, can lead to a social rift on the brink of explosion. In a healthy society with abundant resources and the ability to build institutions and its own economy, there is usually room for adaptation to the increase of elites. However, in a society with a stagnant economy and universities constantly producing elites for the future (as has happened in Iran to the most extreme extent possible), and such a future is not realized, competition among the elites intensifies and the continuous elimination of elites leads to social crises.

The increase in population and destruction of resources, in addition to weakening the government’s capabilities and creating animosity among the people towards the elites, prompts them to take to the streets through mass mobilization (a significant portion of which is caused by animosity towards the elites). This reality leads to widespread political and social unrest, and raises the statistics of human rights violations.

The government’s misuse of human rights, such as civil rights, and the disruption of public order and government concerns all contribute to the weakening of social control. The increase in population without balanced development leads to a decrease in real wages and the occurrence of various forms of visible and hidden unemployment, causing difficulties in providing for the physical needs of the people.

The increase in population in the medium term leads to a younger society, and the younger the population, the less balanced the distribution of the population. If a large group of young people are faced with economic opportunities, and the elites of society compete with each other in providing opportunities and attracting supporters, the possibility of mobilizing them for high political conflicts increases.

All of these are part of a future that has already come to pass, as if the leaders of the Islamic Republic intend to overflow the ongoing social crises in Iran even after the Islamic Republic with incentive packages to increase the population. The reality is that Iranians will not see peace unless their accumulated capital increases the population growth rate, otherwise the government’s (any government’s) inability, the conflict of the elites, and the mass mobilization will be used to control their sustainable living resources.