Without a doubt, the future of a country is in the hands of its people, as long as they are present in society and have reached a level of quality in production and entrepreneurship instead of being a burden on society. While it is true that the population is seen as consumers and depleters of global resources, governments still have hope in the workforce and production capabilities of their people.

For several years, there has been talk in Iran about falling into the trap of population decline. Now, after about two decades of policies promoting family planning, birth control, and less emphasis on having children in the media, what has happened that policies are now changing so rapidly?

If we look at past research and censuses, we can see that Iran’s population has grown from 9 million in 1290 to 75 million in 1990. This means that in a century, Iran’s population has increased by more than eight times. Going further back, from the 1950s to the

Fertility lower than replacement level

Currently, Iran is facing a lower fertility rate than the replacement level, which is predicted to become negative in the near future. This low fertility rate will lead to an aging population. The aging population not only continues in their own lifetime, but also because they do not have children to replace them, it will persist in society. In fact, this aging population will not have the ability to produce children in the future. With the continuation of this situation, it is predicted that in the future, with an increase in the death rate and disruption of the balance between birth and death rates, the population growth will become negative and a serious crisis will begin.

What will follow the increase in the elderly population is a decrease in the proportion of the population in working and economically active ages. This issue will cause more pressure on the working and economically active population, and a significant portion of the country’s resources will be allocated to the care and support of the elderly, without any return.

Current situation in Iran

If we look at the current situation of Iran’s population without considering the future and growth rate, we can say that it is suitable in terms of volume and is in its ideal state. However, in reality, this situation is not ideal. This is because the country has not been on the path of development for about two decades, but rather has been struggling with a population crisis caused by the births of the 1990s.

The population of Iran is approximately eighty-two million, and the majority of the society is in the working and productive age. The population window of Iran has been open for about twenty years, providing a unique historical opportunity in terms of the volume of human resources in working and active ages for the country. However, in reality, these potential opportunities have turned into a crisis due to wrong policies and social and economic issues. In fact, although we have benefited from a good population situation so far, it has not led to economic growth and development. The reason for this is that

Government policies aimed at encouraging people to have children.

A while ago, it was heard from the corners and sides that a plan for mandatory marriage of young people was going to be presented to the parliament. In this way, marriage for young people is optional until the age of 28, and after that, if someone does not get married, they must have a mandatory marriage. It was a strange news that was later recognized as a fabricated news by an unknown writer. However, once again, it drew the attention of society towards the issue of marriage, fertility rates, and government intervention in this matter.

Governments in today’s world are trying to use policies and programs to control or increase the population according to their goals and encourage and motivate people in society to implement them. In our country, the policy and planning for the future of Iran’s population has always emphasized increasing the birth rate. However, there is still no agreement on how much population is desirable for this country. On the other hand, it is still unclear what facilities and infrastructure should be

Why interventionist government policies do not affect fertility improvement.

In the early 1970s, along with the pursuit of family planning policies, the policy of population reduction was promoted and advertised in health centers, media, and other institutions with slogans such as “Less Children, Better Life”. In this regard, people gradually learned that having fewer children actually leads to a better life. In fact, the worldview of many people had already shifted towards the idea that having many children is not acceptable, due to the growth of modernity and urbanization in Iran, as well as government supervision in previous periods. Now, it does not seem easy to change this worldview.

Although it is often seen that poor individuals tend to have more children, economic issues remain the main and strongest reason for the decrease in marriage and birth rates in Iran. These issues stem from various crises such as unemployment and the increase in living expenses in areas such as health, education, housing, etc. Even in the most deprived areas of the country, families are aware of the standards for a comfortable

Final words

There are many factors that contribute to the decline in birth rate in Iran. Factors such as inflation, unemployment, instability, economic concerns, rising cost of living and child-rearing, increased parenting anxieties, urbanization, women’s social mobility, changes in marriage and divorce, identity shifts, consumerism, and political factors.

It is expected that the government will provide a suitable platform to instill confidence in the community and increase the desire for a better future. Instead of insufficient and limited incentive plans, lifelong incentive plans should be implemented. Plans that effectively address the future needs of children.

Accepting immigrants is also one of the available solutions that is being implemented in many countries. This is only possible if Iran reconsiders its overall policies and is willing to tolerate diversity and change in its society. Because demographic changes are necessary for immigration, and our country, which does not even accept its own diverse ethnic and religious groups, cannot be expected to accept others.