In the past decade, Iran has witnessed a repetition and intensification of crises that not only have become more complex in nature, but also the way they are managed has turned them into compounded crises. From deadly floods in Lorestan and Khuzestan, destructive earthquakes in Kermanshah and Sisakht, land subsidence in Isfahan, severe air pollution in Tehran and Ahvaz, water crisis in Khuzestan and Chaharmahal, to widespread protests in the years 1396, 1398, 1401, and the coronavirus, all bear witness to the bitter reality that we are not facing a “crisis management” but rather a “management crisis.”

One decade, dozens of crises.

According to official statistics from the National Crisis Management Organization, Iran has faced an average of 1000 natural and man-made disasters annually. However, what the statistics fail to address is the response to these crises and the extent of damage caused by ineffective management. In summary, the recent decade can be evaluated as follows in terms of events:

Explosive crises: From Plasco to Sanchi and refineries.

Plasco (1395): A warning bell for the decaying metropolis.

Date of incident: 30 Dey 1395.

Casualties: 16 firefighters, 6 civilians (2).

Important note: For years, due to lack of safety in this building, warnings had been given, but no action was taken.

Result: No official resigned or was prosecuted. No report was also published on the review of safety of similar buildings.

Sanchi (1396): The story of censorship and silence at sea.

Date of incident: 16 Dey 1396.

Explanation: An Iranian oil tanker collided with a Chinese ship and exploded. 32 passengers were killed. (3).

Key point: Lack of transparency in providing aid and information, delayed release of information, and ambiguity in the cause of the incident.

Expert Criticism: Inability of Iranian Rescue Fleet and Lack of Preparedness in Maritime Rescue Operations.

Explosions at refineries and power plants (1399 to 1402).

In recent years, more than 20 incidents of fire and explosion have occurred in the country’s critical infrastructure.

Fire at Tehran Refinery in June 2021 (4).

Explosion at Zargan Power Plant in Ahvaz in July 2020 (5).

Fire at Natanz facility in July 2020 (6).

Explosion at the missile factory of the Sepah (September 2021).

Due to the lack of official statistics on the breakdown of financial damages caused by industrial accidents, it is not possible to provide an accurate estimate of the extent of these damages. However, based on unofficial statistics, at least 10 billion dollars in damages have been incurred due to industrial accidents over the course of a decade.

Repetitive causes in all of these incidents.

There was no safety standard.

Media silence.

Lack of response from officials.

Severe equipment fatigue.

Inefficient or untrained workforce.

Rajai Port Incident in Bandar Abbas (1985): Explosion, Fire, and Unawareness.

On April 23, 1404, a massive explosion occurred at the logistics facilities of Bandar Rajaei port in Bandar Abbas, resulting in extensive fire and the death of several workers. As always:

Conflicting official information has been released.

The media has been restricted.

No technical report was published.

Families of the victims were left in ignorance and uncertainty.

This pattern has been repeated in Iran: “incident”, “censorship”, “denial”, and “forgetfulness”.

All of the mentioned incidents, from Plasco to Sanchi and the explosions in Bandar Abbas, indicate the lack of vital elements in infrastructure management.

1- There is no mechanism for early warning.

2- Safety inspections are either fake or corrupt.

3- Responsiveness is absent after a crisis.

4- The culture of evasion and concealment has taken the place of structural reform.

Statistical Summary: A Decade of Technical and Managerial Crisis.

Natural Disasters: From Floods to Earthquakes and Coronavirus.

Kermanshah Earthquake (1396):

More than 620 killed, thousands injured, and hundreds of thousands homeless. (7) After 6 years, some villages in Sarpol-e Zahab were still without rebuilt homes.

Floods of 1398.

The amount of damages caused by the flood this year, was announced to be around 50 trillion tomans in some official media, (8) but the former head of the Organization of Planning and Budget announced the damages to be 38 trillion tomans, of which 23 trillion tomans will be covered through the budget and 15 trillion tomans will be in the form of facilities. (9).

Fronshast Land in Isfahan.

According to experts, subsidence has affected Isfahan, and the National Geological Organization has announced that 2300 kilometers of the province’s plains are at risk of subsidence. During the years 1400-1401, the subsidence rate in northern Isfahan was reported to be 156 millimeters, which is almost 40 times the global rate. (10) While plans to combat this issue are still in the study phase.

Corona.

According to statistics, more than 146,000 people have lost their lives. (11) Vaccination with significant delay began. “Self-restraint” caused by indecision and internal conflicts halted the process of obtaining vaccines for months.

A gap in policymaking, the absence of a national strategy.

In countries with similar experiences to Iran in the field of natural disasters (such as Japan, Turkey, or India), crisis management is based on proactive planning, public education, and rapid response. However, in Iran, the dominant pattern is delayed reaction, ineffective centralization, and lack of transparency. Statistical studies show that:

In more than 70% of crises, initial communication has been delayed for more than 48 hours. (12)

Only 12% of the budget allocated for crisis preparedness has been spent. The head of the Audit Court, while discussing the compliance with budget provisions, stated that out of 117 provisions, which make up 26% of the budget law, only 52 provisions, or 12%, have not been implemented. (13).

In most recorded crises, provincial crisis management headquarters lack standard equipment and specialized human resources. (14)

Erosion of public trust.

Alongside technical statistics, what stands out more than ever is the decline of social capital of governments. During the 1398 floods in Poldokhtar, protesters expressed their dissatisfaction by throwing stones at local officials. During the COVID crisis, a portion of the population was hesitant about the vaccine and during the 1400 water crisis in Khuzestan, citizens chanted: “You didn’t give us water, you gave us bullets.” The findings of the national survey by ISPA show that 74% of Tehran citizens believe that officials are not prepared enough for a more severe earthquake in Tehran. (15).

Systematic corruption and rent-seeking during the crisis.

Crises in Iran have turned into opportunities for some corrupt networks. In a report by the Parliament’s investigation of the Housing Foundation, it was revealed that during the reconstruction process after the Kermanshah earthquake, some projects were assigned to contractors without proper qualifications and there was no proper supervision over the disbursement of funds. (16) During the COVID-19 crisis, private companies with monopolistic licenses sold medical equipment to the government at inflated prices.

Social crises, from symptoms to roots.

The majority of recent crises are not natural, but rather social. The November 2019 protests began with the spark of a gasoline price increase, but its roots lie in structural injustice and public dissatisfaction with governance. In December 2017, young people took to the streets in dozens of cities to protest against unemployment, corruption, and discrimination. In 2022, the murder of Mahsa Amini and the resulting security crisis, caused by suppression, left more than 500 dead, but the management of the government was not through dialogue, but rather through denial, evasion, and violence.

Some statistics seem to indicate.

Paralyzing Focus.

The crisis management structure in Iran is highly centralized and authoritarian. In many crises, governors, district governors, and even provincial crisis managers are unable to take any action without permission from Tehran. The result of this structure is delayed response, disregard for local conditions, and widespread distrust.

Solutions: Change in structure and perspective.

1- Decentralization of crisis management: Delegating real authority to provinces and local areas.

2- Increase transparency and accountability: Public disclosure of budgets and contracts during times of crisis.

3- Strengthening general education and public readiness: Participation of civil institutions, schools and media…

4- Reforming budget mechanisms: Preventing allocation of resources to non-transparent and non-specialized contractors.

5- Establishment of independent monitoring mechanisms: Institutions for evaluating crisis management without political dependence.

***

And in conclusion, the point is that…

Crises are a true test of governance. In the past decade, Iran has not only struggled with managing natural disasters, but has also been unable to effectively respond to social and humanitarian crises. This incapacity stems from a structure that sacrifices transparency, efficiency, and public trust for the sake of concentration of power, corruption, and oppression. “Crisis management” in Iran today is not just ineffective, but has become a crisis in itself.

Notes:

1- More than a thousand natural disasters occur annually in the country.

Mehr News Agency.

August 19th, 2009.

2- Finally, how many casualties did the Plasco tragedy have?

Khabar Online.

February 8th, 2017

3- Everything about damages, insurance, and causes of the Sanchi incident.

ISNA.

“16 Bahman month 1396.”

4- The fire at the Tehran refinery, the biggest fire disaster in the history of the capital.

Iranian era.

November 3rd, 2024.

5- Fire at Zargan Ahvaz power plant.

Iranian era.

July 4th, 2020.

6- Explosion at Natanz Nuclear Facility (1399).

“Supporting the health and safety of the workforce news base.”

July 3rd, 2024.

7- Kermanshah Earthquake (1396),

The news platform supporting the health and safety of the workforce.

“21st of Aban month, 1403.”

8- Perhaps the National Development Fund does not have the capacity to compensate for the damages caused by the flood.

Bright.

, April 7th, 2019

9- Details of providing compensation for the 38 trillion rials flood damage.

World of economy.

“July 4th, 2019.”

10- Isfahan’s inflation, 40 times the global rate.

Etemad Newspaper.

“30 Khordad 1402.”

11-

Worldometer website.

Coronavirus statistics in Iran.

12- “East” examines the story of censorship and prohibition of information dissemination during crises, “the common target is not allowed to speak”.

“Shargh Newspaper”

May 5th, 2025.

13- Wonders of budget allocation.

“Light News”

“23 Aban month 1403.”

14- Crisis management in South Khorasan is facing a shortage of human resources.

Irna.

, 17 Ordibehesht 1403.

15- Important findings of ISPA regarding people’s concerns.

Fararo.

This is a name and does not have a direct translation. It could possibly be a variation of the name “Farah” which means “joy” or “happiness” in English.

“2nd of Farvardin month, 1397.”

16- Investigating the problems of contractors in earthquake-prone areas/ A solution with ifs and buts.

Mehr News Agency.

August 15th, 2018.