In recent months, increased air pollution in some major cities due to extensive use of mazut (fuel oil) in thermal power plants has sparked protests from environmental activists and the public. In response, the head of the Environmental Protection Organization announced a government directive to halt mazut consumption at three power plants in Arak, Karaj, and Isfahan. However, a report by the Iranian Parliament’s Research Center revealed other dimensions of the issue, indicating that the halt was not due to governmental concern over mazut’s pollution but rather a result of depleted reserves of this pollutant fuel.

According to the Parliament’s Research Center, approximately 92% of the country’s electricity is generated in thermal power plants, which predominantly rely on natural gas. This dependency makes the electricity production system vulnerable to fluctuations in gas demand, especially during the cold season. In winter, household gas consumption increases significantly, with priority given to residential and commercial sectors. As a result, the share of gas allocated to power plants decreases, forcing them to use alternative fuels like mazut and diesel, which bring their own challenges. The heavy reliance on natural gas is a consequence of energy policies from previous years that overlooked the need to diversify the country’s energy portfolio. While natural gas might appear to be an ideal choice due to lower costs and domestic availability, this overreliance has reduced the energy system’s flexibility in dealing with crises.

In addition, declining reserves of liquid fuels such as mazut and diesel are a key factor contributing to electricity production imbalances. This year, mazut reserves decreased by about 20% and diesel reserves by 34% compared to the previous year. This reduction is attributed to inefficient fuel storage management and increased consumption in other economic sectors. Liquid fuel serves as a substitute for natural gas in power plants, but due to limited reserves and high supply costs, it cannot effectively address the fuel supply crisis.

It is crucial to note that many countries diversify their energy production sources, using fuels such as coal, renewable energy, and nuclear power. However, Iran remains heavily dependent on natural gas as its primary electricity source. The share of renewable energy in Iran’s electricity production is minimal, and macro-level policies have not encouraged sufficient investment in this sector. This one-sided reliance not only reduces the flexibility of the country’s energy system but also increases electricity production costs during crises. Developing renewable energy sources such as solar and wind could help reduce this dependency, but this sector has not seen adequate growth due to a lack of supportive policies.

Another significant issue in managing the electricity crisis is the lack of coordination between the Ministry of Oil and the Ministry of Energy in implementing Article 2 of the Law on Removing Barriers to the Development of the Electricity Industry, which requires proper planning and management of liquid fuel reserves for power plants.

The Parliament’s Research Center report highlights weak planning and ineffective policies in fuel storage and distribution, which have challenged the sustainable supply of energy. Additionally, many of the country’s power plants operate with outdated technologies and have low efficiency. Due to insufficient investment in upgrading power plant technologies, these infrastructures cannot function optimally. Investing in improving power plant efficiency and developing renewable energy infrastructures could reduce the strain on the current system.

International sanctions have also significantly impacted the situation. Economic sanctions and international restrictions have limited Iran’s access to modern equipment and new technologies for developing energy infrastructures. These limitations have prevented timely updates to the country’s power plants and hindered the utilization of new energy resources. Furthermore, sanctions have restricted Iran’s access to global markets for importing alternative fuels, exacerbating the crisis.

Climate change and reduced water resources are also major contributors to the current conditions. Declining rainfall and recent climate changes have drastically reduced the capacity of the country’s hydroelectric power plants. These plants, which previously played an important role in meeting Iran’s electricity needs, can no longer make a significant contribution due to declining water reserves behind dams. This issue has placed additional pressure on thermal power plants.

In this context, expanding renewable energy sources such as solar and wind, reducing dependency on natural gas, implementing effective energy conservation policies across various sectors, strengthening coordination between the Ministry of Oil and the Ministry of Energy to ensure timely fuel supply for power plants, upgrading power plant technologies, enhancing electricity distribution networks, and learning from other countries’ experiences in energy management and diversifying fuel sources could serve as suitable solutions for managing electricity imbalances, particularly during the cold season.