Iranian rice: 100,000 tomans per kilogram.

Lamb meat: 180,000 Tomans per kilogram.

Chicken: 1 kilogram for 7000 tomans.

Pride: One hundred million tomans.

Inflation rate: Forty-one percent.

“These and dozens of other shocking figures show the conditions that Iran has entered with in the new century. Just one month after the start of the fifteenth solar century, many are worried about the tsunami of malnutrition in the country; (1) in a situation where the inflation of food items in Iran has risen by at least fifty percent and the cost of a household’s basic needs has reached around twelve million tomans; a basket that is only enough for a family of three with one warm meal. (2) This is Iran; without any retouching; in the first month of the new century.”

But what will be the future of Iran? This report attempts to briefly answer this frequently asked question by relying on reports from international institutions. However, before that, two indicators of misery and happiness show well what Iran is struggling with today.

Achieving another record in the inflation index.

Only twenty days after the new century, Iran’s misery index was announced: 49.6. This number is one of the worst statistics in the past eleven years (according to studies, the highest misery index rate was 55.4% in the summer of 1400). Unemployment and inflation are lowering the welfare of society. Economist Arthur Okun created a misery index to show the negative effects of unemployment and inflation; because high levels of these two variables have a reverse effect on welfare. (3) The misery index in twenty provinces of Iran has exceeded the national average, and at least eight provinces in Iran have a misery index rate above 60%. (4) The lowest misery index in the last year of the century belongs to Tehran province and the highest belongs to West Azerbaijan province. “Hamshahri” calculations based on the announced unemployment and inflation rates by the Statistical Center of Iran show that the misery index in 1400 in Tehran was 43.6%, which

The joy of happiness at the bottom of the table.

But with only two days left until the new century, the United Nations Development Organization has published a report on the ranking of the happiest countries in the world in 2022, which showed that Iran ranked 116th on the list, after countries such as Uganda, Kenya, Lebanon, and Afghanistan. Although the definition of happiness and well-being can vary depending on the circumstances, this organization, affiliated with the United Nations, has been working since 2012 to rank the happiness of countries based on criteria such as “personal and civil freedoms,” “hope for life,” “per capita income,” “level of corruption,” and “social services.” “Generosity,” “honesty,” “trust between individuals and governments,” and “level of social inequalities” are other factors considered in this study. In the past two years, after the outbreak of COVID-19, this report has slightly changed compared to previous years and, in addition to the aforementioned factors, also takes into account the “emotional

In this list, Finland has ranked first for the fifth consecutive year, followed by Denmark in second place, Switzerland in third, and Afghanistan in last place. The United States is ranked nineteenth, Germany has taken thirteenth place, and Canada is in fourteenth place. One hundred and forty-six countries have been ranked in this report.

Now with all this, what estimates do global institutions and think tanks have about the future of Iran’s economy? Although the opaque methods of data reporting by the Iranian government and the lack of transparency in statistics hinder the efforts of domestic and foreign analysts to assess the situation in Iran, a partial look at internal opinions and news allows for some predictions.

The salvation of Iran’s economy is in the midst of nuclear agreements.

The Carnegie Institute, in a note published in the fall of last year (2021), emphasized that the economic crisis in Iran is closely related to hostility towards the United States and that the best (and perhaps only) way to overcome these conditions and achieve sustainable development for Iran is to end the forty-year-old animosity with the United States. (6) The note also states: “On the other hand, the coronavirus crisis has placed a heavy burden on this crisis-stricken economy. After Trump’s withdrawal from the JCPOA in 2018, it became clear that Iran’s economic problems, especially the devaluation of the national currency, are closely related to political and geopolitical events. Fluctuations in exchange rates and the devaluation of the national currency in Iran are all signs of an unhealthy economy. According to World Bank forecasts, Iran will experience its third consecutive year of recession, with a contraction of 3.5%. As a result, by the end of 2020,

The research institute “Atlantic Council” has also concluded in a writing that “indeed, Iran and America cannot reach an agreement on returning to the JCPOA, unless the Central Bank of Iran and the Ministry of Oil of this country are connected to the global system indefinitely.” (6).

In addition, the Brookings Institution has also addressed inequality and poverty in Iran in one of its published reports. According to this think tank, the most prominent source of inequality in Iran is the “rural-urban divide” which continues to widen. According to Brookings’ analysis, poverty has continuously increased in Iran and despite the immense wealth generated from oil sales in previous years, this wealth has not been utilized to improve inequality in the country. (6).

In any case, Iran is ending the century in this way. With long-term contracts and selling to China; with limited and destroyed internet; with removing prenatal screening from insurance coverage; with compulsory hijab; and with an economy that is never in favor of the people.

Notes:

1- Nutritional Tsunami: Rice for 100,000 Tomans and Inability to Buy Meat, Radio Zamaneh, 28 Farvardin 1401.

2- The household basket rate reached 11.5 million tomans in Mehr month, Radio Farda, 13 Aban month 1400.

3- Moradi, Morteza, the ladder of poverty; Does unemployment reduce prosperity more than inflation?, Trade Tomorrow, 26 Tir 1400.

4- Political Football in Mashhad; Is Vienna Agreement Close?, Trade Tomorrow, 20 Farvardin 1401.

5- . (This is not a complete sentence, so it cannot be translated accurately.)

Report.

The World Happiness Index in 2022, the website of the World Population Review.

6- Zandi, Farzin, and Akrami, Zahra, movement on the difficult road; what do the world’s think tanks say about the future of Iran?, Trade of Tomorrow, 18 Esfand 1399.