
A Brief Look at Population Growth Policies from a Psychological Perspective / Mehdi Amberi
“Population” is a keyword that greatly influences economic, cultural, social, and political relationships. Currently, when talking about population, the general public sees it as a political statement; however, the increase or decrease in population directly affects livelihood, economy, security, and of course the future of a society, and the government of any country can use this tool to improve the lives of its people and the country’s economy.
According to reports on human development, the true wealth of any country is its population, and the population is always considered one of the most important components of government power. The most powerful governments are still among the most populous (Katozian, 1394).
General population policies and general family policies are among the top-level documents that were formulated and implemented after the change in the country’s population policies, replacing the policy of population control with population growth. Apart from these general guidelines, the most serious guideline that has the potential to become executive laws in the field of population is the comprehensive population and family excellence plan, which was presented by the representatives of the parliament in 2013 in 55 articles and emphasized the issue of population growth with incentives for marriage and childbearing. However, this plan had financial burdens and therefore could not gain the support of the government’s vote.
In the past two decades, Iran has faced the challenge of declining fertility rates. This declining trend is unprecedented in the country’s history and has made Iran the fastest declining fertility rate in the world (Sameni, Shahriari, 1400). The lowest number of births in the past ten years was recorded in 2019, showing a 12% decrease compared to 2018 and a 22% decrease compared to 2014 (Iranian Civil Registration Organization, 1399). The estimated total fertility rate for this year is 1.77 children per woman (Iranian Civil Registration Organization, 1399). According to the latest surveys, the declining trend in fertility rates continued in 2020, with the total fertility rate reaching 1.76 children per woman (Iranian Statistical Center, 1400).
According to the World Population Review website, in 2021, fertility rate and birth rate are considered as factors for determining a country’s replacement rate and as one of the factors for determining the development of countries. Fertility rate refers to the average number of children born to women of childbearing age. Birth rate also refers to the number of live births per 1000 population in a year. Fertility rate is a numerical representation of the number of children a woman gives birth to under two conditions: first, the woman must experience the fertility rate at a specific age, and second, the woman must be alive during her childbearing years. Statistically, this means ages 15 to 44 or in some cases, ages 15 to 49.
According to the World Bank (2019) report, the world population has experienced a significant decrease in fertility rate from 5.5 to 2 since 1960. In 2021, Iran ranked 101 out of 189 countries with a reported fertility rate of 2.1. The highest fertility rate belongs to Niger with 6.9 and the lowest belongs to South Korea with a fertility rate of 1. Interestingly, almost all of Iran’s neighbors have a fertility rate higher than 2.8, with Afghanistan and Pakistan having rates of 4.5 and 3.5 respectively, and Iraq with a rate of 3.7.
In April 2014, Ayatollah Khamenei announced the general policies of the population based on Article 110 of the Constitution. In this announcement, it is stated that considering the importance of the population issue in national power and taking into account the stability, growth, and youthfulness of the current population as an opportunity and privilege, and in order to compensate for the decrease in population growth and fertility rates in previous years, the general policies of the population will be announced. Considering the influential role of the population in the progress of the country, comprehensive planning must be carried out in accordance with population policies for economic, social, and cultural growth of the country. It is also necessary to coordinate and divide tasks among the branches of the government and relevant institutions in this field, and necessary actions must be taken with accuracy, speed, and strength, and the results of policy implementation must be continuously monitored and reported.
In this government announcement, various issues are addressed, including removing obstacles to marriage, providing facilities for mothers, strengthening the foundation of the family, promoting an Iranian Islamic lifestyle, increasing hope for life, promoting a culture of honoring the elderly, empowering the population at working age, redistributing the population geographically, preserving and attracting population in rural areas, managing migration, and strengthening identity-building components.
Despite the existence of multiple strategic and higher-level documents such as the aforementioned declaration, it seems that regardless of the implementation of these policies, the public discourse in the country has also taken a blind eye towards them. This is evident in the general population’s lack of attention towards the general family policies and comprehensive population plan, despite their importance and the need for fundamental changes to implement these policies.
In a discourse where the population values quality over quantity, people say that the quality of a generation should not be sacrificed for its quantity. A population without quality means giving birth to children without proper structures and sufficient resources in educational, cultural, supportive, economic, and other fields (Abdollahi & Rahimi, 1396).
Therefore, paying attention to both quantitative and qualitative dimensions simultaneously and in conjunction with each other can be effective in achieving the desired goals of the country’s population. Therefore, it is expected that in Iran’s macro policies, top-level documents, and relevant laws related to population growth, these two aspects will be considered not as opposing poles, but as two poles alongside each other, and a balance between quantitative and qualitative population growth will be sought. (Samani, Shahriari, 1400).
As Tal (2016) states regarding collective interventions to address social and environmental issues on a global level, solving problems and obstacles to population growth in Iran is like running on a treadmill that is constantly accelerating, but remains in the same place and does not move forward.
Ecology teaches us that stability or having enough flexibility to maintain population balance is a vital component of any sustainable strategy (Tilman et al., 2006). As the world strives to achieve the United Nations’ sustainable development goals, it is increasingly evident that population density and size are influential factors in the quality and quantity of life at a global and local level. Achieving long-term population stability is a fundamental goal of public policy. In societies where the birth rate has significantly decreased below the replacement level, they may face economic and social consequences that can ultimately weaken governments (Allen, 2018). Meanwhile, countries with rapidly growing populations are unable to provide essential infrastructure for health (Delibertis and Lee, 2017). Empirical evidence confirms that efforts to end poverty, eliminate hunger, provide quality education, ensure clean water and sanitation, or even achieve gender equality are futile when the birth rate is very high (Ahrllich and others, 1995).
Now that we are talking about quality, many words such as quality of life, well-being, lifestyle, happiness, joy, and of course depression, anger, and aggression come to mind. Based on research results, the advantages and disadvantages of two approaches, increasing or decreasing the population, can be examined at both the collective and individual levels. In the decreasing population approach, this quality is primarily focused on. The benefits of this approach at the collective level include: more open space, access to nature, equal opportunities, and suitable infrastructure. The benefits at the individual level include: more opportunities for women’s education, more job opportunities for women, healthy family relationships, family welfare, advanced educational opportunities, more time for children and their upbringing, and a peaceful social environment.
Let’s now turn to the approach of population growth and examine its characteristics at both the collective and individual levels. The characteristics of this approach at the collective level include: unintended and excessive overcrowding, loss of biodiversity, exacerbation of social inequalities, and excessive density (in traffic, hospitals, classrooms, etc.). The characteristics of this approach at the individual level include: perpetuation of gender gaps, jeopardizing women’s job opportunities, increasing marital problems, inadequate childhood education, insufficient time for child rearing, and an increase in violent behaviors. These two approaches and their mentioned characteristics are based on articles with the title “Positive psychology as a strategy for promoting sustainable population policies.”
That in the year…
2020.
In the magazine.
Heliyon.
Heliyon.
Spread.
One of the stated objectives in the general policies of population is the promotion and institutionalization of the Iranian Islamic lifestyle and combating the undesirable aspects of Western lifestyle. Interestingly, according to Dr. Qasemi, a writer and researcher in the field of population (1399), at least sixty-five percent of countries in the world have comprehensive policies to support families and childbearing, and they support families and childbearing in various forms.
With a general look at Eastern and Asian countries, it can be concluded that they need contraction policies and it is clear that the Westerners are also pioneers in this field. “Do it for Denmark” is a Danish advertising campaign and media designed to increase the birth rate in the country. Launched by the Danish travel agency, Spies Rejser, this campaign is an attempt to attract Danes to book hotels and travel during holidays as a way to prevent population decline, as studies have shown that a significant percentage of young Danish couples get pregnant while traveling. The mentioned travel agency has announced that for up to three years, they will provide all the necessary items for a child born during a trip booked through their agency. In short, the executive bodies of the country have not even been able to motivate their people at the level of a travel agency, and whatever they have done has been of poor quality, unplanned, and lacking in content, resulting in the opposite effect and leading to the common
In England, as soon as the danger of population decline was felt, encouraging policies for childbearing were immediately adopted and monthly allowances and social housing were considered for low-income couples. In Sweden, if a working woman gives birth, she is entitled to two years of paid leave. This is while in our country, the issue of maternity leave for working women is still a problem, with only six or nine months being granted.
An interesting point about dear Iran is that the executive regulations of Article A, Clause 14 of the 1399 budget law of the country approved the subject of “targeting the resources and expenditures of subsidies” and in a section of these regulations, the utilization of new revenues from targeted subsidies is subject to three conditions: “approval of the Ministry of Cooperatives, Labor and Social Welfare”, “availability of resources” and “identification by the Subsidy Targeting Organization”.
It is clear that everything we have is similar to everything else, and no one or institution sees a reason to explain it. We are in danger of falling into a pervasive paradoxical disorder that tightly grips us and constantly leads us towards a chaotic and directionless path.
Therefore, it seems that in all countries of the world, including Iran, they are first experiencing a drastic decrease in population, a decrease in the young population and workforce, an increase in the elderly population, etc., and they must think of solutions to increase their population. Secondly, all countries of the world, including Iran, believe that in their population strategies and growth policies, they must consider both quantity and quality, with the difference being that in dear Iran, attention to quality is only at the level of dissemination and a few remaining articles. (Running on the treadmill) But in other countries, practical measures are also being taken.
As a sample of the main obstacle, the Director General of the Office of Population, Family and Schools Health of the Ministry of Health in 1393 (2014-2015) told Mehr News Agency that one of the main obstacles to increasing the fertility rate in society is the shortage of marriages compared to the population on the verge of marriage. They also mentioned another obstacle as the increase in divorces in the first five years of marriage and identified another obstacle as the existence of three million infertile couples in the country. Now the main question is what events are happening at the individual and social health levels and where the work has reached.
In another place, the head of the research center “Mabna” has said in an interview with the official news agency of the field that people do not believe in God’s promise regarding sustenance and livelihood, and this issue should be explained by national media and religious institutions. However, they have also requested for the clarification and establishment of the difference between pleasure-seeking and comfort-seeking with the feeling of happiness and addictive pleasure, and have stated that in many cases, the poor are happier than others.
The conclusion is that our work has gone beyond wonder and hearing strange and contradictory opinions in higher and operational documents, ignoring people’s livelihoods, confronting popular protests under the name of rioters, the lack of political and economic stability, etc. has become a habit and if it changes, we will face serious challenges. May God have mercy on the soul of our late Mazlou, who drew a simple pyramid and made the whole world indebted to us except our country, and everyone accepted and understood that meeting human needs has a simple hierarchy and someone who needs a roof and bread does not have poverty with security, respect, love and prosperity.
Unfortunately, they still do not understand that things cannot be done correctly through orders and commands. It is not possible to control the price of currency and dollars, fight against systemic corruption, punish currency, dollar, gold, medicine, and embezzlers, and also cannot increase the population growth rate. This requires infrastructure, peace, education, dynamic economy, and stability.
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