More than 500 days have passed since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. The virus has infected nearly 190 million people and caused over 4 million deaths, making it one of the deadliest epidemics in human history. This global virus has affected all countries, and its official outbreak in Iran was announced several months after its actual spread. According to official statistics, from February 22, 2019 until now, there have been over 3 million cases and 85,000 deaths. Additionally, according to government officials, at least 1 million people have become unemployed during this time, and no one is thinking about the livelihood of these unemployed individuals.

Despite the claims of officials from the Ministry of Health and the National Coronavirus Combat Headquarters, who have repeatedly spoken about the success in controlling the spread of this virus and have claimed to have the best management for its treatment and control, in reality we have seen nothing but an increase in the number of cases and deaths. In rejecting these claims, we can point to the admission of city officials in providing statistics on burials in cities or the lack of publication of statistics related to deaths, which were previously regularly published by the Civil Registration Organization (while according to officials, they have been ordered by the National Coronavirus Combat Headquarters to refrain from publishing these statistics), which sheds some light on the different aspects of this great human crisis.

Despite one and a half years passing since the beginning of this tragedy and the false claims made by medical and health officials, we have witnessed numerous peaks of the disease during this time. According to official claims, we have already gone through four waves and the country has recently entered the fifth wave. However, in some southern provinces, not only have the waves not been controlled, but after a while, without implementing real quarantine measures and restrictions, the next wave has been introduced.

In the midst of all this, we have witnessed numerous occasions where the blame has been placed on the people for the rising statistics; people whose hands are tied and are facing the most dire economic conditions. Those who live in cities can see for themselves that people are doing their best to follow health protocols, using old masks (disposable masks that are used multiple times due to lack of availability) or makeshift masks made from pieces of cloth. By walking around the city and streets without any questioning, one can see the efforts of citizens to prevent the spread of this disease. Meanwhile, there has never been any mention from officials about the lack of medical equipment, which is the main cause of the high death toll.

In the seventeen months since the outbreak of this virus was announced, we have seen a peak in the disease and the implementation of restrictions by health and executive authorities at times due to holidays and lack of adherence to protocols by citizens. However, these restrictions have had minimal impact on the long-term control of the disease. A look at the restrictions imposed in the past month of Aban, which were actually more serious compared to subsequent peaks, confirms this claim. It could be seen that with city-wide lockdowns and closures, the restrictions were taken more seriously, but in the recent peaks, which were more critical, the restrictions were also more superficial. As a result, in regards to the fourth peak, after three months, the number of deaths is still in the three digits, and the fifth peak of this disease that we are currently facing has arrived without the need for closures that were used as an excuse to blame the people.

One of the reasons that has received less attention is the normalization of this disease in society. While in the first months of the outbreak, there was great concern and a sense of danger, over time, COVID-19 has become a common disease. Unfortunately, despite promises of mass production, the vaccination process has been slow due to lack of seriousness and determination. As of May 5th, the daily statistics of vaccinations, along with the number of cases and deaths, showed that 784,017 doses had been administered, with 618,362 for the first dose and 165,655 for the second dose. However, after more than two and a half months, we can see that the statistics for COVID-19 now only focus on the number of doses used, with less attention given to those who have received the first dose. Despite the passage of a long time since the first dose was administered, there is no correlation between the numbers for the first and second doses.

On May 5th, 784017 Duz, consisting of 618362 first doses and 165655 second doses.

On May 5th, 3330309, there were a total of 2844639 doses for the first round and 485670 doses for the second round.

On the date of 5 Tir 5613140 Duz, consisting of 4416983 Duz for the first round and 1196157 Duz for the second round.

And also on the date of 17 Tir 6608117, there were 4517607 doses in the first round and 2090510 doses in the second round.

According to the statistics presented on July 8th, it can be seen that for healthcare officials, presenting numbers has been more important than complete vaccination. As after the announcement of vaccination for the medical staff and prioritization based on age groups and vulnerability, by examining the population statistics, one can discover contradictions and failures in this prioritization. While according to the latest announced statistics, the population over 60 years old is over 8 million, despite several months passing since the arrival of vaccine shipments to the country, not only has this age group not been fully vaccinated, but based on the optimistic numbers, only one-fourth of this age group has received the vaccine. Based on these statistics, which have been examined from April 24th (7,480,017 doses) to July 8th (6,608,117 doses), it can be seen that in these 75 days, 58,241,000 doses have been injected, with a daily average of 75,654

So, if we consider the target even higher than this number, with a population of over 80 million in the country, there is a need to vaccinate at least 60 million people who are over 15 years old, which makes up two-thirds of the population. Considering the need for 2 doses per person, a minimum of 120 million doses is required. With the current vaccination rate of 75,000 doses per day, even if we assume a higher daily average, in the most optimistic scenario, it would take more than 1000 days or at least 3 years for two-thirds of the population to be fully vaccinated.

Given the mentioned factors and circumstances, another issue that needs to be addressed is the problem of unemployment and leisure time, especially for the younger generation who, despite the difficult economic conditions, have also been affected by this disease. These economic conditions have led to the normalization of the disease in society, and in recent days, after the announcement of the fifth wave of this disease, we have witnessed opposition and resistance from various trades against the closures that the National Task Force for Combating Coronavirus has declared. These oppositions, which are due to the difficult economic conditions and lack of necessary support to compensate for them, only make the situation of this disease more dangerous in society.

Now we must see why these normalizing conditions have arisen and despite understanding the dangers of this disease, there are no other solutions for young people except ignoring it.

According to the statements of national authorities, at least one million people have become unemployed during this time and no one is thinking about the livelihood of these unemployed individuals. If in the past this population had the possibility of going to work and moving around, with the current situation not only has that possibility been taken away from them, but the problem of unemployment has also been added to it. As a result, these individuals are in a more difficult mental and emotional state, especially since according to vaccination priorities, younger individuals are being vaccinated later, while these individuals have no choice but to face these dangers due to economic conditions and living situations. They fear that if they do not die from COVID, they will die from hunger.

At the end, it is enough to know that in order to obtain 120 million doses of vaccine (two doses for 60 million people, or in other words, two-thirds of the country’s population), how much money is needed.

• Both doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine cost less than $20, with a total cost of $2.4 billion to procure 120 million doses.

• Both doses of Moderna vaccine cost between $37-25, with the cost of acquiring 120 million doses being approximately $3-4.44 billion.

• Each dose of Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine costs between 5-2 dollars, making the cost of obtaining 120 million doses approximately six hundred million dollars.

• Both doses of Sputnik vaccine cost $10, with a total cost of $1.2 billion for the procurement of 120 million doses.

• The cost of obtaining two doses of Sinovac vaccine has been estimated at around $60, which in total amounts to $3.6 billion that needs to be spent in order to fully vaccinate 60 million people through this vaccine.

• In addition, the Johnson & Johnson vaccine, which is administered as one dose per person, costs less than $10, making the total cost for 60 million doses to be $600 million.

Note:

1- Tri, Mark, Comparison of approved types of COVID-19 vaccines based on timeline and price, Biospace website, July 14, 2021.