The tragedy of the explosion in the port of Rajaei on April 26, 2025, with at least 70 dead, over 1200 injured, and extensive damage to infrastructure, is a prominent example of the consequences of mismanagement in Iran. This article examines systemic factors, such as ineffective oversight, cover-ups, suppression of civil institutions, and lack of independent media, to demonstrate how the mismanagement of the Islamic Republic has created flawed cycles that weaken risk and crisis management. Referring to academic literature and analyzing similar incidents in the past decade (such as Plasco, Metropl, etc.), this study examines the economic, social, political, environmental, human, and international consequences of this tragedy, including its impact on the domestic supply chain, international trade, and the trust of international exporters and Iranian importers, and emphasizes the need for structural reforms.

Introduction.

Industrial accidents such as the explosion in Bandar Rajaei are the result of systemic inefficiencies, not just individual errors. (1) Inappropriate governance, as a root cause, has weakened risk and crisis management in Iran through ineffective supervision, corruption, lack of transparency, and suppression of civil institutions. This article analyzes the consequences of this governance inefficiency within the framework of risk and crisis management, with a focus on the tragedy in Bandar Rajaei, and examines recurring patterns in accidents of the past decade (2015-2015).

Improper governance and risk management includes inefficiency, lack of public participation, corruption, centralization, and lack of accountability, which directly affects the identification and control of risks. (2) In Bandar Rajaei, factors such as unsafe storage of hazardous materials (such as sodium perchlorate), disregard for previous warnings, and lack of advanced monitoring systems indicate systemic flaws. These shortcomings stem from the improper allocation of resources to rent-seeking and unnecessary projects, rather than investing in safety infrastructure, personnel training, and optimizing management. Inadequate supervision and implementation, failure to enforce safety standards in the storage of hazardous materials – despite the warnings of the Crisis Management Director of Hormozgan – indicate weaknesses in policy-making and oversight. This inefficiency is linked to corruption and rent-seeking in the monitoring chain. (3) Concealment and lack of transparency in information dissemination and misleading initial reports (such as the Tasnim News Agency report that downplayed the incident as a mere administrative building) have

The suppression of independent civil institutions and control over the media has made it impossible for public oversight and exposure of violations. In Bandar-e Rajaei, the absence of these institutions allowed for negligence to remain hidden until the tragedy occurred. (4) The Bandar-e Rajaei tragedy has had extensive consequences in economic, social, political, environmental, human resources, and international dimensions. The economic consequences have destroyed key infrastructure in the port, which manages 85-90% of Iran’s container traffic, disrupting the domestic and international supply chain. The temporary halt of port operations has led to a decrease in exports and imports, which, considering Iran’s economy’s dependence on maritime trade, has intensified economic pressure. (5)

The cost of repairing docks, cranes, and rail lines will impose a heavy financial burden on the public budget. Disruption in the operations of the Rajaee Port – which plays a vital role in the distribution of imported goods such as food, medicine, and industrial raw materials – will severely affect the domestic supply chain. Delay in customs clearance will lead to price increases and shortages of essential goods in domestic markets, putting additional pressure on Iranian households, especially in deprived areas. Industries dependent on imported raw materials, such as automobile and petrochemical production, are facing production stoppages, threatening domestic employment and production.

The tragedy of Bandar-e Rajaei has posed serious challenges to Iran’s international trade. The halt of operations at the port has disrupted the flow of exports such as oil, petrochemicals, and agricultural products, leading to a decrease in Iran’s foreign currency income. This has greatly weakened Iran’s ability to secure foreign currency, especially in the face of economic sanctions. Additionally, the damages to infrastructure and lack of safety in Iranian ports have pushed international shipping companies towards rival ports, such as those in the UAE and Saudi Arabia, resulting in a decline in Iran’s share of regional trade.

Failure to comply with safety standards and concealment in crisis management has severely weakened the trust of international exporters and Iranian importers. International exporters, especially in the energy and agriculture sectors, may reconsider long-term contracts with Iranian partners or turn to more stable markets due to concerns about operational risks and lack of transparency. Iranian importers have also faced increased insurance and shipping costs, as international insurance companies have assessed the risk of working with Iranian ports as high. This loss of trust has increased the costs of foreign trade in Iran and reduced its competitiveness in global markets.

The loss of lives (70 killed and more than 1200 injured) and environmental damage (release of toxic gases and pollution in the sea) has put the welfare of society at risk and will have irreversible social consequences. Lack of transparency in announcing the causes of the incident and the type of chemical substances involved has intensified feelings of insecurity and mistrust among local communities and port workers, leading to a decrease in public trust in government institutions and a lack of social participation in managing future crises.

The spread of toxic gases resulting from explosions and pollution of the waters of the Persian Gulf has caused extensive environmental damage due to chemical leaks. This pollution has threatened the marine ecosystem of the region, including coral reefs and fish habitats, endangering the livelihoods of local communities dependent on fishing. (7) Additionally, air pollution in the surrounding areas of the port has affected public health and increased the risk of respiratory diseases. The lack of effective programs for cleaning and managing chemical waste has exacerbated the environmental effects and increased the long-term costs of environmental reconstruction.

The tragedy of Bandar-e Rajaei has had a profound impact on the human workforce employed in the port and related industries. The deaths and injuries of workers, in addition to the human toll, have resulted in a shortage of skilled labor in the port, delaying reconstruction efforts and a return to full capacity. Surviving workers – due to lack of sufficient support from responsible institutions – have faced psychological stress and job insecurity. The lack of safety training and proper protective equipment, stemming from ineffective human resource management, has increased the vulnerability of the workforce, which could lead to a decrease in motivation and productivity in Iranian ports.

The political consequences of the tragedy of Bandar-e Rajaei have intensified internal and external political pressures. Domestically, the lack of accountability from authorities and the absence of an official report on the identification and punishment of those responsible for the Sanchalangar incident has increased public dissatisfaction, which could lead to social protests or exacerbate political tensions – similar to what happened after the Ukrainian plane crash (2019). Internationally, the cover-up and disregard for safety standards have weakened Iran’s credibility in international organizations such as the International Maritime Organization (IMO) (6), which could lead to trade restrictions or new sanctions, especially in a situation where Iran is facing multiple diplomatic challenges.

The international consequences of not adhering to safety and transparency standards have limited international cooperation in crisis management and increased the risk of foreign business in Iran (6). This isolation can lead to a decrease in Iran’s credibility in global markets. The release of toxic gases and pollution in the sea – considering the environmental impacts on shared resources – increases tensions with neighboring countries in the Persian Gulf. Additionally, the decrease in trust of international shipping companies in Iranian ports has disrupted foreign trade and weakened Iran’s strategic position in the region.

Comparative analysis: The recurring patterns of the Rajaei Port incident are following the patterns of past incidents (such as Plasco, Metropl, and the Ukrainian plane crash). These incidents indicate faulty cycles in which:

Inefficiency and corruption disrupt the implementation of safety standards.

Secrecy keeps vital information out of reach of society.

Suppressing civil institutions and media makes monitoring and reforms impossible.

“Backside”

The tragedy of the explosion in the port of Rajaei is not an accidental incident, but a direct result of improper governance that has weakened risk and crisis management through ineffective oversight, cover-ups, and suppression of civil institutions. The economic consequences (disruption of domestic and international supply chains and trade), social consequences (loss of life and public trust), environmental consequences (pollution of the sea and air), human consequences (harm to workers and decreased productivity), political consequences (domestic dissatisfaction and diplomatic tensions), and international consequences (trade isolation and loss of trust from exporters and importers) of this tragedy highlight the need for structural reforms. Investment in safety infrastructure, strengthening independent media, reducing centralization and increasing transparency and accountability can break the current flawed cycle.

Notes:

1. Reason, J. (1990).

   خطای انسانی

   Human error.

   کتابخانه دانشگاه کمبریج

2. Kaufmann, D., Kraay, A., & Mastruzzi, M. (2010). The Worldwide Governance Indicators: Methodology and analytical issues.

   The Hague Journal on the Rule of Law, 3.

   (2), 220-246.

3. Transparency International. (2019).

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   I cannot see the text to translate it. Please provide the Farsi text so I can translate it for you.

4. “Freedom House.” (2023).

   In the year 2023, Iran will have freedom in the world..

5. جهان بانک. (۲۰۲۲).

   World Bank. (2022).

   Perspective on the world’s economy: June 2022..

6. OECD stands for Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development.

   مدیریت ریسک و حاکمیت شرکتی.

7. UNEP. (2020).

   The condition of the marine environment in the Persian Gulf..