Iran’s non-oil exports had a significant decrease in the first 5 months of this year. Non-oil exports of Iran, in terms of value, were almost 12% less compared to the first 5 months of last year. This is while non-oil exports of Iran had almost doubled in the past 5 years. Half of these so-called non-oil exports consist of gas condensates and petrochemical products.

BBC Persian

Economic goals such as striving for resource optimization, income distribution balance, and economic growth for all nations are important. According to economic plans in Iran, the gross domestic product must increase by at least 8%. One of the key factors in achieving this goal is reducing unemployment to 7% and increasing the employment rate. Increasing non-oil exports can have an impact on aggregate demand and reduce unemployment. In this article, the relationship between unemployment and non-oil exports has been studied using econometric methods such as OLS. Non-oil exports should be considered as a strategy to reduce unemployment by economic agents and policymakers. Statistical and time-series data have been collected from the Central Bank and official statistical organization websites.

Unemployment and its effects on economic variables is one of the most important issues that economics deals with, and full employment is considered one of the important goals of governments.

The unemployment crisis in the Iranian economy and its subsequent social issues have a long history. With the rapid population growth in the past three decades, the need for job opportunities has also increased. The increase in enrollment of students by universities after the war resulted in a decrease in available workforce in the job market, and after graduation, it further increased the number of job seekers. The participation rate of women in economic and social affairs, as well as their presence in the job market, had also increased. The decrease in purchasing power of stay-at-home women was also one of the factors contributing to the increase in job seekers.

According to the principles of theoretical employment, employment is the act of being involved in a profession or vocational training. This includes those who work for themselves and those who receive wages for their work. The employment rate refers to the percentage of employed population to the total active population.

Full employment is a general state in which all individuals who are willing and able to work can do so by accessing a job opportunity. The main concept of full employment in economics does not mean 0% unemployment, but rather a level of unemployment that economists refer to as natural unemployment, which is associated with full employment.

Adam Smith, the founder of classical economics, believed that the foundation of wealth and prosperity is human labor.

People who are employed to produce products include direct work and everything that can be bought from outside. Smith believed that increasing income leads to more work. Smith believed that the main reason for the expansion of the industrial revolution was competitive conditions in the economy and government non-interference in the economy. In the classical theory of employment, the labor market was a competitive market and full employment was assumed. The only independent variable in classical economics is labor. Investment is a tool that has been attracted to the workforce and does not cause unemployment. The occurrence of an economic crisis and widespread unemployment raised doubts and questions in the classical theory of employment and prepared the ground for the emergence of new schools of thought. Among the ideas and opinions that were raised after the criticism of classical economics, John Keynes’ views led to a revolution in economic thinking. While socialists criticize classical theories, they question investment and demand a replacement system for it, Keynes called for reforms in capitalism itself to make it stronger and more cohesive. Keynes believed that

Principles of Non-Oil Export Theory

The act of exporting is derived from the conceptual meaning of transportation by ship to outside of a country. The seller of such goods and services is called an exporter, and the buyer who purchases those goods and services in another country is called an importer.

Non-oil exports are the backbone of Iran’s economy.

In the economy of Iran, exports are divided into two categories: oil exports and non-oil exports. Non-oil exports are divided into three categories:

1- Export of agricultural products

2- Factory product exports

3- Export of building and mining materials

According to the Iranian Minister of Economy, non-oil exports of Iran have reached $13.2 billion in the first four months of the recent Iranian year. Hosseini stated that the statistics show a 42.5% increase in the value of non-oil exports during this period. Additionally, Ahmadinejad stated that non-oil exports of Iran have exceeded $30 billion in the past year. The main items of non-oil exports of Iran include liquefied gas, mineral fuels, chemical products, plastics, fruits, nuts, carpets, and fertilizers.

Based on theories and experimental research, real production is based on demand. Demand can be created by internal or external factors. The absence of external demand will lead to production based on internal demand. Therefore, the potential facilities will not be fully utilized. It is natural to use the unused capacity to respond to external demand.

Non-oil exports affect all economic variables, especially employment. We can see the impact of non-oil exports on employment, production, collection, packaging, exports, and marketing. For agricultural and industrial products, it is natural that the only demand for the product is unemployment until a balance is established between production and demand. On the other hand, if products are prepared for export to other countries, the demand for more production will increase and the possibility of high employment opportunities will increase. Research has been done on foreign trade and exports. Gordon and colleagues in their 2006 research, “Openness, Inequality, and Poverty: The Issue of Endowments,” have tried to examine the relationship between trade freedom and income distribution and factors related to capabilities. The results show that in countries where agents have higher capabilities, income inequality is theoretically less valid if there are no barriers to trade and exchange. This issue has not been studied in Iran.