Iran has been facing nationwide protests since the second half of the 1990s due to the high prices of essential goods; prices that are partly a result of international sanctions, but also due to incorrect economic policies and inefficient management. These protests have unfortunately claimed the lives of many and made life difficult for a large number of people. The Islamic Republic, after a bloody crisis in the 1988 elections, has invested heavily in its internal security capabilities in order to suppress any social crisis with an iron fist.

But the root of these protests is still being debated and discussed in society. Is the root of these protests the high cost of living and the removal of subsidies? Do the people of Iran, despite the shrinking of their table and all the risks, take to the streets without even worrying about being shot, or is there a deeper issue at play? To understand the root of the issue, we must look back and review the political and social developments in Iran after the 88 elections.

After the Green Movement’s failure, a group of reformists who were close to Khatami and Hashemi Rafsanjani tried to regain power with their support. Their project in the 1992 presidential election was successful and they were able to once again take control of the executive branch, although their physical presence in the government was minimal. However, overall policies were in line with their desires. The biggest challenge Iran faced at that time was the United Nations sanctions due to its nuclear ambitions.

Therefore, lifting the sanctions and opening up in foreign policy became the most important agenda for Rouhani’s government. Through complex diplomatic negotiations, the Rouhani administration was able to reach a significant agreement with the West, known as the JCPOA. International economic sanctions against Iran were lifted and there was a relative opening for economic investment. During this time, Iran became a popular destination for tourists and economic opportunities for many Western countries, which could have been a stepping stone towards building trust.

The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) had also brought new hopes for future openings in the domestic political arena. Many were talking about a “second JCPOA” at that time, but two events completely reversed this process. The sudden death of Hashemi Rafsanjani, who had ideas for amending the constitution, and the rise of Trump in America completely changed the political situation in Iran; to the point that even the widespread participation of people in the 2017 presidential election could not revive the hopes created among the people for improving the situation.

In the absence of Hashemi Rafsanjani in the “Marble Palace” and the Democrats in the “White House”, the candle of the JCPOA gradually went out. The new US sanctions against Iran had not yet begun when widespread protests erupted over the increase in egg prices in the country. While the main root of these protests, which started in Mashhad, was the embezzlement of the financial and credit institution of Sarmayeh-Saman, which had squandered the capital of its shareholders. The initial protesters were the losers who spread throughout the country after the increase in egg prices and, according to the statistics of the officials of the Islamic Republic, claimed fifty-four lives.

As time passed, the inefficiency of the Rouhani government – which was trapped on one side by the military and on the other side by Trump’s sanctions – became more and more apparent. Less than two years after the protests of December 2017, the gasoline price hike reignited the smoldering fire. The gasoline price hike was like pouring gasoline on the entire country of Iran, and this time it claimed even more lives.

However, in addition to nationwide protests, there were also multiple labor protests throughout the country at different times, all stemming from the people’s livelihood. Nationwide protests by retirees, workers from several large factories including Haft Tappeh, the oil company, Hepco, truck and bus drivers, farmers in Isfahan, teachers, and protests against water shortages in Khuzestan were all indicative of the economic inefficiency.

With the departure of Rouhani and Trump and the arrival of Ebrahim Raisi, a part of society once again became hopeful that with the consolidation of power and the effectiveness of Biden’s administration, there would be positive changes in the economic situation in Iran. However, less than a year later, that same part of society came to the conclusion that Ebrahim Raisi is not capable of making any changes. The protesters returned to the streets. Despite the difficulties and economic struggles of the people, as well as the lack of progress in lifting economic sanctions, Raisi’s government took action to liberalize prices. By removing subsidies for bread and government-issued currency for essential goods, including medicine, and increasing the prices of all goods, a new wave of nationwide protests erupted, with a greater focus in western provinces of Iran. Although these protests are not as widespread as those in November 2019, they are more frequent and widespread, and have a direct root in the structural inefficiencies

Field reports from recent protests show that the main issue in these protests is not just the decrease in people’s purchasing power; the bigger issue is the “fall of freedom” of public trust in a government that cannot paint a bright future for the country. This issue is also evident in the statements of government affiliates and close associates. The slogans of ordinary people on the streets clearly express their lack of trust in the government. Ebrahim Raisi is the first president of the Islamic Republic who has not even completed a year in office, yet people want him dead and call him a liar. The slogan “Raisi is a liar! Where are your promises?” is the most indicative of this lack of trust.

The issue of public distrust has even made those close to the government concerned. According to Abbas Salimi Namin, former editor-in-chief of Kayhan Havaii magazine, “Without public trust, no program will reach its conclusion.” “The Metropl Abadan incident clearly sent the message that a significant portion of society is distrustful of the system and what is being done in the decision-making process.” According to Salimi Namin, this distrust began during the Rouhani era and the roots of the November 98 protests were also the people’s distrust of the government. (1) Gholamreza Masbahi Moghadam, a supporter of Ebrahim Raisi who is a member of the Expediency Council, believes that discrimination among the people is the root of recent protests. According to him, there is no justice in paying salaries and wages, and this has caused people to feel “discriminated against.” (2) Another perspective comes from a celebrity supporter

The lack of trust in the government has also had a widespread reflection in the domestic media of the country. The Arman newspaper published an article in which the writer stated: “With the waves of inflation that have caused a flood of high prices in the society in a matter of days, whenever an official says that affordability is on the way, no one believes it and of course, nothing special happens; so today’s lack of trust in society is not unfounded. Due to the widespread spread of the coronavirus in the third and fourth waves and its prolongation in various layers of the country, society has become fearful and socially anxious, making it more difficult for it to think, understand the situation, and cope with the crisis than before.” (4)

But the history of this distrust goes back to the pre-coronavirus era; a distrust that is not only directed towards a specific government, but towards the entire ruling system. The reformists who currently hold power, were also aware of the general distrust towards the government during Rouhani’s presidency. During the November protests, a roundtable discussion was held at Hakim Sabzevari University in Mashhad, with the aim of challenging the government’s policies on targeted subsidies, including the increase in gasoline prices. In this roundtable, where reformist views dominated, the lack of transparency and disregard for the people’s opinions were identified as the main causes of the widespread public distrust in the country.

But a step back, the opinions of a sociologist that were reflected in ISNA news agency in 2018. According to Emanollah Gharai Moghadam, not only has public trust in the government weakened, but people also do not trust themselves. The sociologist then refers to the phenomenon of mistrust and how people no longer trust domestic media.

An overview of statistics and figures also shows why the trend of distrust has reached its peak and if the government continues with the same policies, it won’t be long before the Islamic Republic is engulfed in nationwide protests. According to the 1401 budget law, the government must manage the country with 1,505 trillion tomans. According to the newspaper Donya-ye Eqtesad, the total budget for 1401 is 3,631 trillion tomans. Of this amount, 1,505 trillion tomans is allocated to the general budget and the rest, equivalent to 2,231 trillion tomans, is allocated to state-owned companies and banks.

In the 1372 public budget, the equivalent of ninety-one percent of the public budget is allocated to general resources and expenditures, and the equivalent of thirteen trillion tomans is allocated to specific resources and expenditures. A review by Trade News based on the report of the Parliamentary Research Center shows that the country’s public budget has a deficit of 704 trillion tomans without taking into account oil and gas revenues. This is while the government can also achieve its own income of 527 trillion tomans from taxes. In the current economic situation and unprecedented recession, the moment-by-moment increase in the exchange rate and widespread dissatisfaction in the market make achieving such income from taxes nothing more than a joke. On the other hand, an amount equivalent to 519 trillion tomans has been considered for oil and gas revenues. Although the war between Russia and Ukraine has put pressure on the price of oil and gas, with the continuation of sanctions against Iran and the possibility of the return of UN sanctions, it is not

In a general overview, there is a relative distrust towards politicians in all places; even in democratic and developed countries, distrust towards politicians is a common phenomenon. In Iran, due to the opaque and closed political structure, this distrust has existed in different proportions during different periods; but what we are talking about today is absolute distrust; something that can lead to a nationwide uprising and a domino effect. The inefficiency of the government has reached a point of collapse. This distrust was evident in the 1400 presidential election. The 40% participation in the presidential election was a warning sign that showed the popular support for the Islamic Republic has dropped below 50%. The continuation of the current situation intensifies this trend and leads to absolute distrust. Therefore, with the continuation of non-transparent and unprofessional policies such as targeting subsidies, unrealistic budgeting, and a confused and expansionist foreign policy that leads to more sanctions, it is expected that the inefficient government will bring about a general distrust and pave the

Notes:

1- Why didn’t people protest against the high prices?/ Salimi Namin answered, Khabar Online, 10 Khordad 1401.

2- The root of popular protests from the perspective of Masbahimoghaddam, Khabar Online, 2 Farvardin 1401.

3- Is poverty supposed to be eradicated or the poor? Mowj News Agency, 15 Ordibehesht 1401.

4- “Lack of trust in the people” doesn’t shake you? Arman-e Melli newspaper, issue 990, 30 Farvardin 1400.